Rocky Rascovich
EF4
Today may hold a surprise find for the one who wants to glean on what's left of the convective season. Based on the RUC and NAM, mid level vortmax arrives into SW/WC Okla. by about 22Z. With just enough moisture in place along with little in the way of CINH, convection should initiate pretty close to my location NW of Piedmont close to the aforementioned time. Lift is inconsequential as is speed shear but directional shear looks substantial if you believe the RUC.. especially near the warm front which lifts northward to just north of OKC by late afternoon. I would think that discrete cells will merge into clusters or a quasi line and move east at a speed that should be manageable to keep up with (30kts or less). Lapse rates are such that 1.5 inch diameter hail is likely along with an imbedded meso that could trigger a TVS alarm or two. As of now, would pick areas east from OKC/Norman area on east to Shawnee, Seminole for most likely area to witness a possible needle in the haystack around dusk. Further south and east, moisture is greater and should maintain SVR threat until at least mid evening in the area I have outlined. Good luck to all who go out!
