2011-05-29 FCST: MI

[John Schlenner]

Somewhat interesting potential for tornadoes over MI on Sunday. A warm front will likely stall out somewhere in the vicinity of I-69 providing a focus for storms to form. Surface winds will be backed somewhat, and hodographs appear favorable for supercells. 0-6 km shear will be around 40-60 kts, and 0-1 km shear will be around 20-30 kts. Finally, instability will be sufficient considering the other parameters, with MLCAPE likely in excess of 1000 J/kg.

This is one of the better setups I've seen in some time for MI, and I'm curious to see how other Michigan posters feel about this potential.

 

[Steve Rynbrandt]

I think it is interesting as well. Last night I waited as long as I could to view the current DY2, but I ended up falling asleep just after midnight. The NAM has backed off from the crazy CAPE numbers from yesterday (3000J/kg) to the more reasonable numbers you mention, provided the morning showers don't ruin the day. Storm motion appears reasonable (25-30kts) and central lower MI, right where the warm front is expected to be, can be decent chase terrain if you are in the right farmland. I like these warm front plays in lower MI with a good road network and of course it being close to home.

As of now I'm planning to chase, with a "maybe" from my chase partner. We'll be deciding on a target tomorrow morning, as being in the Flint area gives us decent freeway access in all directions. If I had to pick a target right now, it would probably be near Lansing.

 

[rdale]

Right now I don't see LAN being in play as we'll cap off as the instability moves in. I do like warm fronts in this state however, so could make a trip up 127 after church. SREF is pretty excited about the GRR-MOP corridor during the afternoon. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/...3&field=SREF_prob_combined_0.01_ESHR30_2000__

 

[Bob Hartig]

I see potential. Yesterday the NAM frankly had me feeling a bit excited about the prospects of a local chase, but today's 12Z has painted a less gratifying picture, with pathetic mid-levels until after capping has clamped down sometime after 21Z.

But as Rob has pointed out, the SREF is more optimistic. This 9Z run isn't exactly screaming tornadoes, but it does make a liar out of the NAM with decent shear overlaying instability and with a supercell parameter of >5, and I think with capping a bit less ambitious (judging by 700 mb temps; I wish SREF included CINH among its instability parameters). It's nice to think that we've at least got a shot at a decent warm-front chase tomorrow shaping up here on my home turf. Fingers crossed.