Matt Hunt
EF3
Tomorrow there will be a somewhat stationary front from near the low in KS and draped across central/northern MO into central IL. A weak impulse is expected to move ENE through the Ozark region tomorrow afternoon/evening. In addition, AM convection should lay down some outflow boundaries which could serve as sources of lift for surface based storms. Parameters look amazing for supercells and tornadoes if storms can fire. Bulk shear 0-500mb is at 40-50 kts in the warm sector, and hodographs are large clockwise curves. Instability should be around 1000-2000 J/kg, depending on clearing out of the early convection. If that convection hangs around too late, it could kill any chances for storms. However, if storms initiate, all of the ingredients are there, plus storm motions will be extremely manageable at 10-15 kts.
I'm planning to head toward St. Louis late morning/early afternoon, depending on how things look in the morning. There may actually be a better chance in MO, but terrain is not very good, and I'd rather not go that far. Just depends where that impulse is come late afternoon.
Anyone else planning on chasing this one?
I'm planning to head toward St. Louis late morning/early afternoon, depending on how things look in the morning. There may actually be a better chance in MO, but terrain is not very good, and I'd rather not go that far. Just depends where that impulse is come late afternoon.
Anyone else planning on chasing this one?