Jason Persoff
EF3
Mods: feel free to add states/areas. My $0.02 FWIW. Given that I'm in OKC tonight, I'll have to give this one a pass (man do I need to sleep), but for those in that region:
NAM 18z and GFS 12z forecast for 00z tomorrow:
500mb winds show two areas of interest: one in NE CO, the other in NE NM. In CO, the area along I-76 is forecast to be in the right exit region of a small jet max w/ 30-40 kt winds out of the WSW late in the day, so being on initiation is less likely to be an issue. Appearance of the upper level disturbance should be around 22-00z, and therefore should give ample time for storm vectoring based on SAT and radar.
Capping will be strong relative to daytime temps up and down the front range from CO to NM, with substantial H7 temps along the Raton Mesa. A 20 kt LLJ develops and strengthens along the front range of CO throughout the day with winds out of the SSE.
At the sfc, upslope forcing will be maximized along two weak low pressure systems. The northern one will form along the foothills of N CO, west of I-76 (996mb) and the other will occur in south of the DCVZ along the Colo Spgs area of I-25 (998mb).
Assuming current models are correct, an uncharacteristically moist pool will exist over the DEN metro region with Tds forecast to be AOA 50-55deg by 00z (!). Weaker Tds will be out over Campo, CO, with Tds in the more common range for 40-45 deg.
Forecast high temps for DEN will be AOA 70, making T/Td spreads about 20-25 degrees along the DEN metro region. The southern target would have wicked spreads with daytime temps being up around 80-90deg.
Theta-e and CAPE will be maximized on the I-25 to I-76 region. Storms that form will be SLOW, especially compared to yesterday (on the order of 10-20kts to the E), but will rapidly move out into a more subsident atmosphere east of Ft. Morgan where upper level winds will die off quickly.
Precip suggests initiation along the I-25 corridor on the northern outskirts of DEN.
Best target (IMHO) may be Greeley to Ft. Lupton along US 85 down to Bennett (along US 36 north of I-70). Pretty good paved road network out there, and perhaps the DCVZ will be active enough to help with ground-level spin.
NAM 18z and GFS 12z forecast for 00z tomorrow:
500mb winds show two areas of interest: one in NE CO, the other in NE NM. In CO, the area along I-76 is forecast to be in the right exit region of a small jet max w/ 30-40 kt winds out of the WSW late in the day, so being on initiation is less likely to be an issue. Appearance of the upper level disturbance should be around 22-00z, and therefore should give ample time for storm vectoring based on SAT and radar.
Capping will be strong relative to daytime temps up and down the front range from CO to NM, with substantial H7 temps along the Raton Mesa. A 20 kt LLJ develops and strengthens along the front range of CO throughout the day with winds out of the SSE.
At the sfc, upslope forcing will be maximized along two weak low pressure systems. The northern one will form along the foothills of N CO, west of I-76 (996mb) and the other will occur in south of the DCVZ along the Colo Spgs area of I-25 (998mb).
Assuming current models are correct, an uncharacteristically moist pool will exist over the DEN metro region with Tds forecast to be AOA 50-55deg by 00z (!). Weaker Tds will be out over Campo, CO, with Tds in the more common range for 40-45 deg.
Forecast high temps for DEN will be AOA 70, making T/Td spreads about 20-25 degrees along the DEN metro region. The southern target would have wicked spreads with daytime temps being up around 80-90deg.
Theta-e and CAPE will be maximized on the I-25 to I-76 region. Storms that form will be SLOW, especially compared to yesterday (on the order of 10-20kts to the E), but will rapidly move out into a more subsident atmosphere east of Ft. Morgan where upper level winds will die off quickly.
Precip suggests initiation along the I-25 corridor on the northern outskirts of DEN.
Best target (IMHO) may be Greeley to Ft. Lupton along US 85 down to Bennett (along US 36 north of I-70). Pretty good paved road network out there, and perhaps the DCVZ will be active enough to help with ground-level spin.
