Joe Pudlik
EF1
Note: Mods can add other states as needed.
Concerning S. WI/IL/E. IA...
This is an interesting setup being shown on the models, especially from the 0z runs last evening. Both the 0z GFS and NAM had a decent to nice flow aloft, generally on the order of 40KT+. Moisture and instibility are also in place, with dp's around 65F and CAPE values running AOA 2500 J/KG. The NAM had a nice area of 0-3km SRH on the order of 350-400m^2/s^2 by 0z in N. Illinois, increasing a bit after dark. 0-1km SRH also increased to around 150 by 0z and greatly increased after 0z. The surface flow in the area is southerly and backed to the SE in some areas. As previously mentioned, the wind profile aloft is nice with a gradual turning. The hodo's were also quite nice looking, especially in the Sterling/La Salle/Streator, IL areas.
The issue with the 12z runs is that there is much more early initiation which cause more more uncertainty.
Concerning S. WI/IL/E. IA...
This is an interesting setup being shown on the models, especially from the 0z runs last evening. Both the 0z GFS and NAM had a decent to nice flow aloft, generally on the order of 40KT+. Moisture and instibility are also in place, with dp's around 65F and CAPE values running AOA 2500 J/KG. The NAM had a nice area of 0-3km SRH on the order of 350-400m^2/s^2 by 0z in N. Illinois, increasing a bit after dark. 0-1km SRH also increased to around 150 by 0z and greatly increased after 0z. The surface flow in the area is southerly and backed to the SE in some areas. As previously mentioned, the wind profile aloft is nice with a gradual turning. The hodo's were also quite nice looking, especially in the Sterling/La Salle/Streator, IL areas.
The issue with the 12z runs is that there is much more early initiation which cause more more uncertainty.