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2011-04-25 NOW: TX/OK/AR

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Tornado watch #201 just got issued for a large chunk of northeast TX, southeast OK and southwest/west AR.

A svr warning already issued for a cell that just developed on the southwest end of the line of tstrms in northeast TX - it essentially developed right over east Dallas. Rather fun to watch a loop of that thing balloon over one scan. Although it's young, it's displaying a nice radar sig with increasing precip core size downwind of the updraft area. Maybe it can stay isolated.....

Will be interesting to see this highly dynamic day play out.

..KP..
 
Just looked at the 15Z HRRR model run and it shows a right mover initiating from a cluster of storms in the hill country at 1 pm and then evolving into a supercell and moving down towards Austin and then dissipating near Houston about 9 to 10pm. I am now seeing a tower go up NE of Goldthwaite, Texas....
 
DFW1.png
Storm that went up in 5000 CAPE environment SW of Ft.Worth/Dallas is turning into a potential storm of the day. Entering Significant Tornado Parameter area of 4 now. Flying Eagle. Dallas needs to hope it turns hard right, cause it has quite the environment between here and there.

EDIT: Just went tornado warned.
 
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Tornado watch just popped for much of Central Texas until 10pm this evening and several cells have started to fire out in Burnet and Coryell Counties....this could be an interesting evening for Central Texas! CAPE values from 4000 to 6000, with 56kts Bulk Wind and modest shear.
 
Looks like a second storm developed to the southwest of the first one and is effectively eating it. While the original storm still shows rotation southwest of Cleburne, the second storm is probably raining down on the updraft region of the first storm. Also, the second storm is now forming a hook and suspicious velocity data is showing up in the WER of that cell. Storm has quite the BWER aloft.
 
There are several interesting storms worth watching currently ongoing in central Arkansas. A cluster of three supercells deserves the most attention west of Little Rock. The middle of the three storms appears to have the highest tornado potential with a possible tornado located 5 miles SW of Hot Springs Village, AR as of 6:07pm CDT.

Another possible tornado was located 11 miles SW of Perryville, AR as of 6:07pm CDT and should approach Perryville, AR in the next 20-30min.

9stm69.jpg



EDIT 1:
As of 6:16pm CDT a possible tornado was located 7 miles SW of Perryville, AR. and was moving to the northeast at 35mph. The tornado should be near Perryville at about 6:30pm CDT. Another possible tornado was located 3 miles SE of Hot Springs Village, AR.

axeav4.jpg



EDIT 2:
As of 6:25pm CDT a possible tornado was located 3 miles SW of Perryville, AR. Another possible tornado was located 8 miles ENE of Hot Springs Village, AR.

EDIT 3:
As of 6:34pm CDT possible tornadoes were located 1 mile NE of Perryville, AR and 14 miles NE of Hot Springs Village, AR or about 23 miles SW of Mayflower, AR.

EDIT 4:
The center supercell has cycled and the new tornadic circulation was located 4 miles W of Maumelle, AR or 7 miles SW of Mayflower, AR as of 6:57pm CDT.

11aeuro.jpg


http://i54.tinypic.com/bevf9z.jpg
(Corresponding SRV image for above reflectivity image.)


7:15pm CDT radar images:
http://i56.tinypic.com/2e30hf7.jpg (reflectivity)
http://i55.tinypic.com/2r5ybk8.jpg (SRV)
http://i55.tinypic.com/zn8ops.jpg (spectrum width)
 
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I"m amazed at the number of PDS tornado watches already issued this year. As of the issuance of tornado watch #206, there have been 5 PDS tornado watches so far in 2011. That doesn't count additional tornado watches with probabilities of at least 2 tornadoes/of at least 1 EF2 or higher tornado of 80/50 (3), 80/60, 80/30, 70/60, and 70/40 that were not PDS tornado watches. I don't know right now how that compares with previous years, but it seems quite high to me. And we aren't even fully done with April!
 
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