Ugh, another underwhelming chase E of I35 for me, yet again. I left the NWC with Jana Houser and Corey Potvin in my vehicle (with Robin, Dan, and a few others in another) in the early afternoon, with an overall goal to get E of the dryline by ~45 miles along a nice N/S road. We figured this would get us downstream enough to give us enough time to select the best looking storm to chase. So, we opted to set an initial staging point in Seminole along I40. We noticed first initiation down in the Arbuckles, with other storms initiating almost the entire length of the dryline from the Red River northward. Forecast soundings from the morning runs didn't show much in the way of a cap, and the 12z NSSL 4 km WRF and noonish HRRR runs indicated a "string of pearls" arc of supercells along the DL. We thought we were playing this best by patiently waiting to see which storms would persist out of the half-dozen or more storms that developed along and just ahead of the DL. There was a relatively persistent signal of messy, widespread convection N of BVO, and there was a relatively consistent signal for more discrete supercells along and S of I40, so we opted to find a location that would maximize the time that a storm could spend in good chase terrain (an area that extends less to the E as one gets farther S from I40). We did think hard about heading into southern Oklahoma, but I was very concerned that storms would rather quickly end up E of US 69, in areas that are extremely difficult to chase. As such, we figured we'd optimize our opportunity to chase a supercell in easier road networks and terrain if we stuck closer to I40.
The base of a storm developing just S of I40 NW of Seminole looked pretty good, though it was interfered with by a left-split that moved up from the first Davis supercell; we took some ~0.5-0.75" hail in at the I40/Rt 99 intersection from this left-mover. Our initial cell developed some decent low-level structure, with a decent-looking wall cloud, but we refocused southwest when another storm developed to the our initial storm's immediate southwest. Considering the proximity of the storms, we figured that we'd opt for the storm that had the least obstructed inflow, and there was a pretty good gap between the supercell down near Sulphur and the developing and maturing storm E of Shawnee along I40. The storm, for most of its life, looked rather strung out, though it did look pretty nice twice -- once southeast of Prague (when we were moving east towards Okemah) and once as it neared Castle (W of Okemah). We kept up with the storm as it moved ENE, eventually getting through Okemah and following it N and E on Rt 56 towards Okmulgee. The storm gave us some quarters (just a rough estimate -- we were driving and didn't want to stop), but it soon fell apart as it got NE of Okemah. Ugh.
Nothing else around (within reach, at least) was looking any better, so we opted to try to take a shot at the first storm we set our sites on when it developed near Shawnee; this storm was now N of Okmulgee. We ended up taking some zig-zag option, eventually catching up with it near Wagoner. By this time, it was getting dark, but we did see a nice wall cloud / low-level meso (barrel-shaped) with a centrally-located "nipple" or bowl shape. In fact, as it was just NW of Wagoner, it looked almost imminently tornadic. Alas, we hit US 69, which essentially marked the end of our chase -- the chase terrain rapidly worsens E of there, and it was getting dark anyway. The storm's low-level structure weakened, and we called it a day N of Wagoner.
I have to say, I expected a different outcome today. Considering the wind profiles and instability (with the very steep mid-level lapse rates), I really was expected a day with multiple strong tornadoes from multiple supercells in eastern Oklahoma. The fact that the NAM and RUC were forecasting very little CINH was a concern for me, and perhaps one of the problems was just too many storms, which resulted in endless storm interactions. Td depressions weren't that bad, moisture depth was pretty good, and the outflow I experienced wasn't terribly cold (it was cool, but not cold). Some of the storms had atypical reflectivity structures, which tells me that the shear profiles may have been a little off, even though SRH was pretty high in most of the area.
Sure, just when I get a setup with decent moisture (magnitude and depth, considering the time of year), strong wind shear, good veering profile, steep mid-level lapse-rates, and no issues with strong capping, I still come up without any tornadic video or pictures. I did see some decent low-level structure (e.g. wall clouds, beaver tails, etc.) a couple of times, but it was largely underwhelming (particularly considering expectations).