2009 Weather Predictions...

[Mikey Gribble]

The Blacky Weather Forecast says, "it's gonna rain", so I bet it's a good season.

 

[Laura Duchesne]

Even if it is like a 2006.... I ain't worried. I saw some of my fave storms that year (May 31 and June 5). My friends and I will be down first two weeks of May.

 

[Randall Marable]

I will be satisfied just as long as there is not a repeat of that awful and nightmarish summer of 1998 where we got stuck in that dreadful extremely hot and dry weather pattern in the Southern Plains. (Don't be surprised if we see something similar this summer.) It should be drier than normal with a few significant severe weather outbreaks for the Central/Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast while it remains wetter than normal for the Southeast for most of the summer.

As far as the hurricane season is concerned, it wouldn't really surprise me to see Texas get struck by another hurricane this year. However, I'm expecting most of the action to be in the Southeast, Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard this season. The Mid-Atlantic to Northeast should see a hurricane this season, though I don't expect it to be a major one. However, I'm kinda expecting South Florida and Alabama to each suffer a direct hit from a major hurricane in September. These two should be the most significant storms of the 2009 hurricane season. The Fall Season should be much stormier for the Central/Southern Plain States as compared to 2007 and 2008. Yea I know, very bold predictions indeed.

I'm still sticking with my 'drier than normal prediction' for the Southern Plains States for late spring thru most of the forthcoming summer. Now that I've made this prediction twice, maybe I will be proven wrong just for trying to be so confident.

I'm also beginning to wonder if my S. Florida / Alabama major hurricane prediction will actually turn out to be the same storm. I guess I will stick to my original prediction for now. We shall see.

 

[Cstok]

95% of what Ed describes goes over my head, but I do like his most recent post:

http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

"Synoptically for the USA, and most numerical models are doing a reasonable job into days 5-7, another western states split flow closed low is likely next week. Afterward (roughly week-2), this split flow should consolidate while the “northern branch ridge” retrogrades. Hence there is likely to be a period of an east <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 /><ST1LACE st="on">Pacific Ocean</ST1LACE> trough-western states ridge and so forth. Perhaps similar to many episodes during spring 2008, ~weeks 3-4 a resumption to strong but progressive western and central <ST1:COUNTRY-REGION st="on"><ST1LACE st="on">USA</ST1LACE></ST1:COUNTRY-REGION> troughs may resume. Should we go back to that northward shifted but active storm track, drought may return/intensify across the southern <ST1:COUNTRY-REGION st="on"><ST1LACE st="on">USA</ST1LACE></ST1:COUNTRY-REGION> once again. Speculating farther into summer, should this La-Nina situation linger and excursions into octants 4-5 of GWO phase space occur, like summer 2008, there may be episodes of anomalous heat contributing to elevated fire dangers across the western states. Other weather ramifications, nationally and internationally, should be understood. For instance, more western <ST1:COUNTRY-REGION st="on">USA</ST1:COUNTRY-REGION> “trough attacks” are likely to make the storm chasers happy across the Plains...."

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

95% of what Ed describes goes over my head, but I do like his most recent post:

http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

"Synoptically for the USA, and most numerical models are doing a reasonable job into days 5-7, another western states split flow closed low is likely next week. Afterward (roughly week-2), this split flow should consolidate while the “northern branch ridgeâ€￾ retrogrades. Hence there is likely to be a period of an east <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 /><ST1LACE st="on">Pacific Ocean</ST1LACE> trough-western states ridge and so forth. Perhaps similar to many episodes during spring 2008, ~weeks 3-4 a resumption to strong but progressive western and central <ST1:COUNTRY-REGION st="on"><ST1LACE st="on">USA</ST1LACE></ST1:COUNTRY-REGION> troughs may resume. Should we go back to that northward shifted but active storm track, drought may return/intensify across the southern <ST1:COUNTRY-REGION st="on"><ST1LACE st="on">USA</ST1LACE></ST1:COUNTRY-REGION> once again. Speculating farther into summer, should this La-Nina situation linger and excursions into octants 4-5 of GWO phase space occur, like summer 2008, there may be episodes of anomalous heat contributing to elevated fire dangers across the western states. Other weather ramifications, nationally and internationally, should be understood. For instance, more western <ST1:COUNTRY-REGION st="on">USA</ST1:COUNTRY-REGION> “trough attacksâ€￾ are likely to make the storm chasers happy across the Plains...."

Thanks for the link. It will be interesting to see if we can get a series of troughs to move through in May.....especially if we can get quality moisture in place.

 

[Mike Smith]

Agree that things may be "looking up" for next week. It is also encouraging that the heavy rains in Texas (up to 15") and Kansas (up to 6 inches) in the last two weeks will help keep Gulf moisture "moist" in the low levels.

It has been pointed that this winter's frequent CP airmass plunges has kept "good" Gulf air out of the region. With the "rest" the western Gulf will get this week and the moistening from the recent rains, any storms next week and into early May should have more to work with.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Indeed Mike. I think it's safe to say that the gulf is open for business. By next week, things are looking up, with 60+ degree dewpoints through the dryline in central KS and points north and south, and all the way into the northeast US. The models are coming into somewhat of an agreement of a decent trough, especially the ECMWF.

At least the moisture will be there - if we can get a nice dynamic trough to come though, it'll be go time!

 

[Randall Marable]

I will be satisfied just as long as there is not a repeat of that awful and nightmarish summer of 1998 where we got stuck in that dreadful extremely hot and dry weather pattern in the Southern Plains. (Don't be surprised if we see something similar this summer.) It should be drier than normal with a few significant severe weather outbreaks for the Central/Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast while it remains wetter than normal for the Southeast for most of the summer.

As far as the hurricane season is concerned, it wouldn't really surprise me to see Texas get struck by another hurricane this year. However, I'm expecting most of the action to be in the Southeast, Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard this season. The Mid-Atlantic to Northeast should see a hurricane this season, though I don't expect it to be a major one. However, I'm kinda expecting South Florida and Alabama to each suffer a direct hit from a major hurricane in September. These two should be the most significant storms of the 2009 hurricane season. The Fall Season should be much stormier for the Central/Southern Plain States as compared to 2007 and 2008. Yea I know, very bold predictions indeed.

Not too bad of a prediction, so far. Though I know I don't speak for most of you, it surely feels like a repeat of 1998 to me .