2009 Weather Predictions...

[Nathan Edwards]

My thoughts....


Medium to strong La Nina will result in unusually low and faster progression of troughs through the lower 48 during winter and into early spring. This will result in a higher than average number of tornadoes in the early months, but keep them restricted to messy chases in the deep south and South East US. I'm hoping for a change to ENSO neutral conditions in early May, with the troughs digging in further north and hanging around for a bit longer giving plenty of chasing opportunities in the Kansas area and neighbouring states. This is pretty much what seemed to happen last year and ENSO forecasts now are similar to then so we'll see what happens. Hopefully, the outbreaks will happen the week before I leave to head back to the UK, rather than the week after like this last year however!

In reality, Death ridge from May 8th to May 29th is extremely likely since this is my 3 week chasecation, so everyone else ought to book their trips either sides of these dates! Don't say you havn't been warned!

 

[Jason Young]

Well other than freezing mist , Southern Oklahoma has been dry as hell . Amazing there aint fire's all over like 06.

 

[Tom Dulong]

Some Drought Relief for N. TX

In North Central Texas, high pressure/NW flow entrenched, as has been most of the Winter. In need of rain. Will we get it? Only time will tell.

Although N. Texas has been in a moderate drought (See Map), it looks like there will be some relief coming from today throught the end of the week per the latest NAM total precipitation forecast. Amounts of 2-4 plus inches cannot hurt the severe weather outlook for later this spring.

Now...if we can just get a few more tropical airmass intrusions clashing with stalled fronts later this month!!??

 

[Karla Dorman]

Nearly 3 inches of rain, still coming down. =] Whoo-hooooo! May not bust the drought, but certainly helps. Was needed, badly.

 

[Warren Faidley]

It's generally somewhat possible to "predict" the chase season by watching the weather patterns over the next couple of weeks leading up to May. As a rule, if the western portions of Tornado alley, western Texas, Oklahoma, eastern NM, etc., remain in a drought, its a better than 50/50 chance the season (and dryline) will be centered more towards the east and northeast.... Oklahoma City, Central Kansas, Nebraska. In other words, much like last year. Then again, I always divide the chase season into three sections. Late April and early May, the rest of May and the first week of June, and then the late season. These individual periods can often move around. One good note this year, so far, we have not had those dynamic fronts dropping down from the north and pushing the moisture far into the Gulf. Regardless, it only takes one fantastic day to make the entire season!

W.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Too true, Warren! Please arrange the great day to occur in the 2 weeks following May 18, as that's when we arrive (flying to Denver this year).

I always try to have May 22 within my chase vacation!

On a forecast note, the ECMWF seasonal range forecast (which doesn't have very good skill!!) shows a higher probability of above average 500 hPa heights for much of the CONUS in April-May-June. Of course, this is purely an average, and although several death ridges look possible, some decent chasing ops should occur in between.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

No high risks until a wind-high for a summer derecho.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Regardless, it only takes one fantastic day to make the entire season!

W.

What a true statement that is. I didn't chase in 2004, but Justin was telling me how many people were writing the season off in mid April because each system that came through was moisture starved.

Then May 12th happened and for the next month 2004 would become the "Year of the Photogenic Tornado".

 

[nickgrillo]

As long as it's not another 2006, then everything will be fine!

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

2006

2006 started with a bang too. March 12th was incredible and got me PUMPED for the season. Too bad the rest stunk. I really wish I didn't live in Florida in 2003. 2004 gave me some hurricane excitement but nothing beats a good severe outbreak.

We will see.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Sure 2006 started with a serious drought over the Plains, but what made the season horrible was the mega death ridge that shut down the Plains after May 10 and it didn't let up until August! Had that not have happened 2006 would have been a decent season.

I'm just saying moisture doesn't affect how good a season will be, but mainly where the hotspots will be and sometimes that can be tough, but other seasons that had mega death ridges were 1988 and 1998 both of which had wet to very wet winters over the Plains.

And like a few guys were mentioning earlier about 2004, it was quite dry over much of the Plains as well until about early March when several significant rain events plagued Texas, similar to what has happened over the last week.

So basically, who knows what the season will bring regardless of the moisture we have seen. We may see a 2004 or we could see a death ridge, we'll see. To be honest, with the weakening La Nina and neutral conditions I think we may see more of a slow early season with an active Mid-Late May through Mid June, based on past neutral seasons.

 

[Mark Farnik]

I agree with Mike's assessment - I think the season will initially be sluggish out of the gate, but then, barring the onset of an unspeakable evil which shall only be referred to by its initials of 'DR', I think the season will become significantly more active come mid-May and remain so into mid-late June as this La Nina episode fades to black and we make the transition into ENSO neutral conditions.

Once again, if the ongoing drought conditions in the western High Plains persist, I think we'll see the dryline hanging out over the same general areas it did last season i.e. central NE/KS/OK and points east, as Warren noted.
It would be nice if we'd get some significant precipitation and have some good outbreaks here in the western High Plains. But that's just wishful thinking on my part.

One thing I do know for sure is that (again, barring the occurrence of a dastardly 'DR') there will undoubtedly be major outbreaks on May 23rd and June 6th, because I will be indisposed on both of those dates photographing two of my best friend's weddings. However, the $1500 I'm making between the two weddings will definitely make up for any tornadoes I may miss on those dates

 

[Jim Tang]

I think this season will be a late bloomer, sorta like 2004-2005, but of course not as active as 2004. Will definitely not be a blockbuster season like last year.

 

[Randall Marable]

I will be satisfied just as long as there is not a repeat of that awful and nightmarish summer of 1998 where we got stuck in that dreadful extremely hot and dry weather pattern in the Southern Plains. (Don't be surprised if we see something similar this summer.) It should be drier than normal with a few significant severe weather outbreaks for the Central/Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast while it remains wetter than normal for the Southeast for most of the summer.

As far as the hurricane season is concerned, it wouldn't really surprise me to see Texas get struck by another hurricane this year. However, I'm expecting most of the action to be in the Southeast, Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard this season. The Mid-Atlantic to Northeast should see a hurricane this season, though I don't expect it to be a major one. However, I'm kinda expecting South Florida and Alabama to each suffer a direct hit from a major hurricane in September. These two should be the most significant storms of the 2009 hurricane season. The Fall Season should be much stormier for the Central/Southern Plain States as compared to 2007 and 2008. Yea I know, very bold predictions indeed.

 

[Jim Cross]

It looks like finally the panhandles and southwest kansas is going to get some needed precip in the form of mostly snow in the next couple of days. Even the middle of next week shows signs of maybe more precip in the form of rain. Lets hope this trend holds for awhile.