Here is the chat log for Dr. John Scala, 3-31-2005. Big thanks to Dr. John Scala for such patience, as he was booted off many times by his connection, but came back every time. And thanks again to George for arranging this in the first place.
The connection problems Dr. Scala had have been edited (to the best of my abilities) to make the questions flow better.
[20:56:00] <JScala> looks like we are rockin and rolling in the southern Plains tonight
[20:56:10] Joins: DougM (
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[20:56:13] <cnmsales> hello all
[20:56:25] <Mike_HH> hello John
[20:56:27] <@GeorgeT> I was watching the activity across the South earlier
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[20:56:35] <DougM> hey shane
[20:56:39] <SA> hello
[20:56:59] <@GeorgeT> hey guys
[20:57:02] <JScala> tremendous back building over the deep south earlier
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[20:57:06] <FrankM> it is quite entretaining watching these storms on radar... compared to what we were looking at a few months ago..
[20:57:16] <@GeorgeT> Yes
[20:57:22] <@GeorgeT> I'm not much of a winter weather guy
[20:57:23] <@GeorgeT> hehe
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[20:57:31] <FrankM> go snow...
[20:57:32] <JScala> Well, the atmosphere is beginning to awaken
[20:57:39] <cnmsales> i like winter, for about 3 weeks
[20:57:39] <cnmsales>
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[20:57:46] <JoeG> 5 min ETA
[20:57:58] <FrankM> well... its the natural cycle
[20:58:00] <Mike_HH> it'd be nice to see the gulf stop getting whacked by fronts
[20:58:01] <Mike_HH> sigh
[20:58:02] <dane> Oh man this machine is acting up, hope I'll not miss to much of this chat, brb. Hi John.
[20:58:13] <JScala> I like a good snowstorm, too, but its time for boomers
[20:58:18] <@Caleb> Yeah
[20:58:20] <@GeorgeT> agreed
[20:58:22] <@GeorgeT>
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[20:58:27] <cnmsales> me 2
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[20:58:31] <JoeG> Yep
[20:58:36] <@GeorgeT> hey Randy
[20:58:45] <Randy> George good evening!
[20:58:49] <Randy> Where you from again?
[20:58:55] <JoeG> Oh, and good evening Dr. Scala
[20:59:02] <JScala> Hello, Joe
[20:59:05] <FrankM> actually this year has been quiet for snow accumulation... you guys prolly got more snow then we did up here
[20:59:05] <@GeorgeT> Booneville, KY
[20:59:10] <@GeorgeT> that's SE of Lexington
[20:59:13] <Randy> Good evening to you to Dr. Scala
[20:59:15] <@GeorgeT> (the middle of nowhere really)
[20:59:25] <JScala> You should be in BOS, 4' above average
[20:59:39] <JScala> Hello, Randy
[20:59:52] <FrankM> yeah.. everything has passed us to the south this year
[20:59:55] <@GeorgeT> snowfall here was extremely light for the year
[20:59:58] <cnmsales> Dr Scala, do you have a web site?
[21:00:02] <FrankM> new england got the big chunck.. we got nothing
[21:00:10] <@Caleb> I've had my fair share of snow for this winter; I'd just like some warm temperatures now. Luckily NW Ohio is slowly getting there, finally
[21:00:10] <JoeG> And as usual for me, its been calm in Trumbull, CT so far
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[21:00:37] <JScala> Just the pages I use for my classes at MU. I will be developing my own page in the near future
[21:00:41] <JoeG> Although, we are supposed to get some thunderstorms on Saturday
[21:00:42] <FrankM> i think today was the first day we reached the double digits for temp (in C)
[21:00:56] <DougM> I saw lightning last night for the first time in awhile...relieved a little SDS
[21:01:03] <JoeG> Cool
[21:01:05] <Mah_Skywarn> Hello Dr Scala
[21:01:14] <JScala> Greetings!
[21:01:16] <JoeG> I got some amazing ones when i was in NYC
[21:01:30] <Randy> What's the forecast for next week?
[21:01:33] <@GeorgeT> Dr. Scala, anytime you are ready to begin, just let me know. And whenever you get tired of taking questions, we'll end. Hehe.
[21:01:41] <JoeG> heh
[21:01:44] <Mah_Skywarn> When did you work at TWC ?
[21:01:52] <JScala> I'm game...as long as my digits hold out
[21:01:55] <JoeG> yep, youre the boss here, Dr. Scala
[21:01:57] <@GeorgeT> lol
[21:02:02] <JoeG>
![Wink ;) ;)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
[21:02:08] <JScala> I was at TWC from 1998-2002
[21:02:12] <Mike_HH> some might want to direct some questions to George in PM
[21:02:23] Joins: RMK_TCU_W (
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[21:02:26] <JoeG> And, thank you for taking the time to chat with us chasers
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[21:02:30] <@GeorgeT> we have a fairly small group here tonight, so we might not have to moderate it afterall
[21:02:38] <FrankM> yeah.. thank you Dr. Scala
[21:02:46] <@Caleb> We do appreciate your time, Dr. Scala
[21:02:52] <DougM> i wont be here long im going out to party tonight
[21:02:53] <Randy> Dido here
[21:02:53] <JoeG> yeah, we are a well behaved bunch
[21:02:56] <JScala> Glad to be here...I follow some rather distiguished folks
[21:02:56] <DanC> welcome
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[21:03:25] <@GeorgeT> Yeah, so far Dr. Rasmussen and Wurman have paid us visits
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[21:03:45] <JScala> I know both...I'd like to go on ride with the DOW sometime
[21:03:54] <JoeG> yep, and a few more are on the way as well
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[21:04:19] <JoeG> It would be fun, Dr., i sure would like to do that
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[21:04:26] <JoeG> Hey Sam
[21:04:31] <samsagnella> hey joe
[21:04:42] <Mike_HH> have you ever storm chased John?
[21:04:52] <@GeorgeT> These frogs are really getting a nice tune going outside right now
[21:05:00] <@GeorgeT> I love early Spring
[21:05:05] <JScala> Oh yes, probably across 13 states by now
[21:05:06] <JoeG> heh, i hear them too
[21:05:10] <Mike_HH> very cool
[21:05:22] <Mike_HH> still chase at all then?
[21:05:23] <JScala> I'm heading out to OK i n May to get some time in
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[21:05:24] <JoeG> 13, a healthy number if you ask me
[21:05:33] <Randy> Dr. John when did you leave TWC?
[21:05:40] <JoeG> thats great, im hoping to chase in KS next summer
[21:05:44] <Kimtwister> hello dr scala
[21:05:46] <JoeG> he left in 2002
[21:05:55] <@GeorgeT> Hopefully by way we can get some nice days without these polar fronts scouring all the moisture
[21:06:04] <@GeorgeT> ooops, by that time, rather
[21:06:06] <JScala> Still chasing when I can, but not in the east, too difficult.
[21:06:21] <JoeG> All you have to do is ask mother nature nicley George
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[21:06:30] <JScala> I left TWC in July 2002, burned out form the early morning gig
[21:06:43] <Mike_HH> yes, starts going downhill east of Nebraska, lol
[21:06:51] <JoeG> hehe
[21:06:52] <Randy> Do you still keep in contact with the TWC crew?
[21:07:02] <FrankM> was it fun working at TWC or did your day consist of analyzing weather patterns only?
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[21:07:17] <JScala> Sure, spoke to a friend down there just this week
[21:07:37] <JScala> I enjoyed TWC, but I found I was the only doing detailed analysis
[21:07:59] <JScala> The don't have the manpower to do a synoptic analysis
[21:08:15] <Randy> I forgot Dr. Scala who then took your spot on the TWC?
[21:08:15] <@GeorgeT> ok Doug
[21:08:19] <Kimtwister> ok gt
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[21:08:37] <JScala> That frsutrated me but I enjoyed developing my own ideas and sharing them with the morning team
[21:08:42] <Mah_Skywarn>
http://snowball.millersv.edu/metall/html/i...amsbanq03-1.jpg
[21:08:49] <Mah_Skywarn> that you on the right Dr ?
[21:08:52] <@GeorgeT> Dr. Jon Nese is the present morning storm analyst there
[21:09:03] <@GeorgeT> and of course Dr. Forbes in the evenings
[21:09:13] <Kimtwister> yea
[21:09:15] <JScala> Jon Neese who used to be at the Franklin Inst
[21:09:20] <JoeG> Now, i have a question a bit closer on topic: Now, i know that there are some flaws in the F-scale such as building integrity and such, so is there another plan in the works to possibly make another form of the Fujita Scale, or to improve it?
[21:10:03] <JScala> Yes, there was the 2003 Symposium to look a couple of other items like how long a building is subject to a specific wind
[21:10:19] <Randy> Anyway a "typical person" can get a behind the scenes look at the TWC? Or is it just employees that can enter?
[21:10:25] <JScala> Problems will creep into the climatology though if the scale is changes
[21:10:31] <JoeG> ah
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[21:10:43] <@GeorgeT> hey Ryan
[21:10:48] <JScala> Its bad enough now with the population bias that exists
[21:10:48] <Kimtwister> hi ry
[21:10:53] <RyanH> Hello
[21:10:54] <AdrianElizabeth> hello Ryan
[21:11:15] <JScala> I know Greg Forbes are working on it, but I don't know what the status is
[21:11:15] <FrankM> population bias?
[21:11:20] <JoeG> Because, an old barn leveled, which is MUCH weaker than a newer, better constructed home can wwithstand more wind
[21:11:45] <JScala> Local maxs in incidence often result of more people witnessing the event
[21:12:07] <JScala> These numbers go into the data base
[21:12:49] <@GeorgeT> I sometimes wonder if that explains the number of touchdowns reported in and around a nearby town....London, KY. They seem to get 10 tornadoes to every one recorded in the surrounding counties combined. It even has the guys at the local NWS office puzzled.
[21:12:59] <JScala> Joe, you are right. I surveyed the damage from a tornado in PA last summer and was amazed at the destruction
[21:13:14] <Kimtwister> is from SW PA
[21:13:31] <JScala> Some structures were completely removed yet we graded it as an F3 due to construction considerations
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[21:14:02] <JScala> This is Campbelltown tornado of July 14, 2004...just missed Hershey, PA
[21:14:05] <AdrianElizabeth> hey Kanani
[21:14:11] <@GeorgeT> evening Kanani
[21:14:12] <JoeG> Oh, i remember that one
[21:14:16] <Kimtwister> i remeber that storm
[21:14:26] <Kanani> howdy
[21:14:28] <JScala> I thought I was in KS when I entered that development
[21:14:44] <FrankM> what about the observations that one side of a tornado has stronger winds than the other side... does that factor into the F-scale?
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[21:14:50] <JScala> Tim Marshall's work came in handy
[21:14:51] Joins: gn (
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[21:14:57] <@GeorgeT> evening Bob and gn
[21:15:02] <AdrianElizabeth> hello gn and bob
[21:15:03] <Kimtwister> tims anice fellow
[21:15:04] <ScudStudBob> Thx GT
[21:15:24] <JScala> The tangential wind added to the motion will result in a stornger wind on one side, much like
[21:15:28] <JScala> a hurricane
[21:15:43] <JoeG> Yep
[21:16:02] <@GeorgeT> a question about construction.......
[21:16:44] Joins: SA (
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[21:16:48] <Kimtwister> hi shane
[21:16:49] <@GeorgeT> what type of construction typically best stands up to a strong tornado? Are those with "ranch" style roofs and slab foundations with anchor bolts typically more wind resistant?
[21:18:20] <JScala> What I saw was homes with brick walls and wall studs achored to base plate faired the best
[21:18:35] <JScala> Vinyl siding wwent bye-bye
[21:18:59] <@GeorgeT> Glad I live in a brick home with bottom plate bolted to the foundation
[21:18:59] <@GeorgeT> hehe
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[21:18:59] <JoeG> heh
[21:19:14] <JScala> And so many roofs are constructed at the factory and just hoisted on top without adequate fastening
[21:19:15] <AdrianElizabeth> hello weathernet
[21:19:29] <Kimtwister> has a question a bout c chasing
[21:19:31] <JScala> These roofs are lifted hole and thrown
[21:19:33] <@GeorgeT> BTW gang, is this unmoderated chat working well for you or would you prefer it be moderated?
[21:19:38] <JoeG> Hmm, see, i never get tornadoes here, so im not bolted down.. hope i don t have that much of an eventful summer
![Wink ;) ;)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
[21:19:41] <JScala> That's whole..
[21:19:49] <JoeG> I like it unmoderated
[21:19:51] <Kimtwister> yes gt
[21:19:57] <AdrianElizabeth> I like it too
[21:20:00] <Kimtwister> me to
[21:20:12] <JScala> Fine here, I will just answer what I can with my nimble fingers
[21:20:19] <@GeorgeT> haha
[21:20:19] <@GeorgeT> ok
[21:20:21] <JoeG> heh
[21:20:36] <JoeG> don't give youself carpal tunnel Jon
![Wink ;) ;)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
[21:20:36] <@GeorgeT> this way does keep you more a part of the chat and not the center of it
[21:20:50] <JScala> Homes are going up here in PA with little regard for wind in excess of 100 mph
[21:20:55] <Mike_HH> which area do you think has the best chaseable tornadoes(like say a state)?
[21:20:55] <JoeG> yeah, i would feel kinda awkward
[21:21:18] <JScala> No problem...
[21:21:40] <JScala> The best chasing I've been on has been in ND, OK and TX
[21:22:04] <JoeG> i prefered OK on my chasing expidition awhile ago
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[21:22:13] <Kimtwister> i like kansas
[21:22:13] <Mike_HH> cool
[21:22:20] <JScala> Gotta to be to see and drive
[21:22:28] <JoeG> didnt see much in TX, ands never chased in ND
[21:22:29] <JScala> Sorry
[21:22:29] Parts: greenmoss (
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[21:22:41] <JScala> Road access, and visibility
[21:22:46] <ef_away> With programs like GEMPAK, GARP, etc, in many colleges, is the art of doing hand analysis slowly disappearing fron courses like synoptics
[21:23:00] <JScala> YES>>YES>>>YES!!
[21:23:19] <JScala> I demand hand analysis because there is much more one realizes by looking at the data
[21:23:55] <JScala> Objective analysis is fast but smoothes key values
[21:23:58] <JoeG> right, "i want the hard raw data fool!" (Mr. T)
[21:24:01] <JoeG>
![Wink ;) ;)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
[21:24:13] <AdrianElizabeth> ha
[21:24:36] <FrankM> good old Mr. T
[21:24:37] <@GeorgeT> sometimes technology can't replace the human eyeball and brain
[21:24:39] <@GeorgeT> for sure
[21:24:45] <FrankM> Dr. Scala...
[21:24:48] <Kimtwister> DR JOHN what made u chase storms?
[21:24:48] <JScala> Chuck Doswell and I had an enlightened discussion on this suject recently...we are of the same mind in that regard
[21:24:55] <Mike_HH> I don't think I've ever done hand analysis, lol
[21:25:16] <@GeorgeT> Me either Mike...not because I don't want to, I'm just not capable of doing so
[21:25:21] <@GeorgeT> lol
[21:25:25] <RyanH> lol
[21:25:32] <JScala> I like to be outside to witness weather, and feel it, not just look at pictures
[21:25:37] <Mike_HH> leaving earlier would get me to see omre
[21:25:37] <Mike_HH> more
[21:25:41] <FrankM> I heard reports that they are planing on building these storm shelters under overpasses...is that accurate?
[21:26:04] <@GeorgeT> oh wow
[21:26:13] <@GeorgeT> I sure hope they pick a more open area
[21:26:14] <JScala> Thats new to me...the Andover video set storm safety back several years
[21:26:18] <@GeorgeT> say an interstate rest stop
[21:26:36] <FrankM> i heard a little shelter under an overpass...
[21:26:48] <FrankM> something where people can go in case of a svr wx event
[21:26:55] <JScala> now a rest stop would make sense, but how many of those are there per 100 miles in KS?
[21:26:59] <JoeG> i wouldnt think that logical
[21:27:04] <FrankM> since people are drawn to overpasses.. i thought it made sense
[21:27:12] <JoeG> the rest stop sounds good
[21:27:15] <JScala> So are traffic jams in a hailstorm
[21:27:23] <Kimtwister> yup
[21:27:25] <@GeorgeT> yeah, just so long as it doesn't jam up the highway
[21:27:29] <JoeG> heh
[21:27:35] <JScala> But that's happening now
[21:27:44] <FrankM> i heard that they would incorporate the design of this new shelter into the construction of the new overpasses
[21:27:58] <JScala> People pull under an overpass and stop traffic
[21:28:20] <MikeDinGRI> Dr. Scala, after Dr. R's recent chast about some of the latest theories regarding tornadogenesis, I am wondering where you see the empahsis of research into tornadogensis going over the next 5-10 years?
[21:28:20] <FrankM> never gonna trust TLC again
[21:28:33] <Kimtwister> hehe
[21:28:33] <JoeG> making the danger even greater
[21:28:35] <Randy> Dr. Scala do you think there is away we can educate the general public to stay away from over passes during a tornado
[21:28:37] <Kanani> they are building storm shelters in in tx at the "safety" rest stops
[21:28:48] <Kanani> 2 that i know of now
[21:28:59] <Kimtwister> oh thats good
[21:29:15] <@GeorgeT> Good info Kanani. I see Texans think like me!
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[21:29:25] <JScala> I show the Andover video often and always say these people were so fortunate...look at the van in the background that does a circle on its nose
[21:29:30] <@GeorgeT> hello Jay
[21:29:33] <JayM> hey
[21:29:45] <Kimtwister> i remember that footage
[21:29:51] <AdrianElizabeth> hi Jay
[21:29:53] <@GeorgeT> Right, that was only an F2 tornado that didn't hit the overpass directly
[21:29:53] <Kimtwister> very scary
[21:29:54] <JoeG> yeah, they were fortunate to not get killed from that
[21:30:06] <@GeorgeT> the poor folks under that one overpass on 5-3-99 were not so fortunate
[21:30:09] <JScala> Right, and it was decaying as it moved through
[21:30:14] <JoeG> imagine if it was an F5 like Moore, OK
[21:30:22] <Kimtwister> remembers that gt
[21:30:25] <Kimtwister> was sad
[21:30:34] <SA> That's the difference between an F2 scrap and an F4 direct hit George
[21:30:40] <JScala> Oh that's gruesome...no doubt you've seen the pictures of the concrete wher they sttod
[21:30:41] <FrankM> it was very sad listening to those stories about may 3rd kim
[21:30:41] <JoeG> I remember people using overpasses, and dying in them
[21:30:53] <Kimtwister> yup was a bad storm
[21:30:59] <Kimtwister> i have it on video
[21:31:00] <@Caleb> Ah, yes, the imprints, outlines...very disturbing
[21:31:04] <Kimtwister> tim marshalls
[21:31:07] <@GeorgeT> very
[21:31:08] <FrankM> very...
[21:31:11] <JoeG> very
[21:31:26] <JScala> Makes an impression, right? So I emphasize stay away from overpasses
[21:31:37] <Kimtwister> very true
[21:31:41] <@GeorgeT> Tim Marshall's May 3rd survey on his 1999 highlights tape showed some incredible things
[21:31:42] <JScala> Then I am asked, well, where should I go?
[21:31:45] <FrankM> you were working during that outbreak were you not Dr. Scala?
[21:31:53] <SA> What's eeeire is Chuck Doswell took photos of that overpass and they found the mising woman's body not far from where he'd been standing while shooting photos, about an hour after he'd been there
[21:31:55] <cnmsales> Dr Scala, i know this may be a very hard question to answer. Do you see the amount of tornadoes per year riseing or falling?
[21:31:55] <Kimtwister> yup gt
[21:32:12] <Randy> You know something it's too bad you can't put a sign at every overpass saying how dangerous it is during a tornado
[21:32:15] <Kimtwister> good question traye
[21:32:37] <JScala> Yes, my air time at TWC on May 3 was a defining moment, and I didn't sleep well for a couple
[21:32:42] <JScala> of days after
[21:32:46] <JoeG> i bet
[21:32:58] <JScala> So climate?
[21:33:12] <Kimtwister> global warming/
[21:33:23] <ef_away> What research are you currently doing at Millersville
[21:33:31] <JScala> Well, I think we are entering a time of extremes which may produce periods of above and below average numbers
[21:33:42] <@GeorgeT> You certainly did all you could do to alert people. I still have video I recorded from that evening. I could sense the urgency in your voice and knew something big was happening.
[21:33:48] <cnmsales> i see, please expund on why you think this
[21:33:56] <JScala> Look at the May 1-10, 2003 and May 21-30, 2004...astounding numbers
[21:34:11] <@GeorgeT> interesting
[21:34:27] <@GeorgeT> seems most of the severe weather the past two years have come in 2 week marathons
[21:34:33] <FrankM> couldnt the extreme numbers also be explained by better technology and more well trained spotters out in the field?
[21:35:19] <cnmsales> Yes i agree, i live in nevada mo and we saw many many storms both years just north and south of us in a short week period
[21:35:21] <MikeDinGRI> Dr. Scala, after Dr. R's recent chast about some of the latest theories regarding tornadogenesis, I am wondering where you see the empahsis of research into tornadogensis going over the next 5-10 years?
[21:35:27] <JScala> So, George, I was reading reports that just blew me away
[21:35:43] <FrankM> couldnt the extreme numbers also be explained by better technology and more well trained spotters out in the field?
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[21:36:16] <JScala> Tough quesiton, but I think a lot of emphasis will be on initiation, then mechanims for rotation
[21:36:52] <JScala> Yes, look at the trend since 1991...even SPC uses a 3-year average
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[21:37:13] <Kimtwister> wb dan
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[21:38:04] <cnmsales> Dr Scala, do you ever see any technology being created that defines tornadoes easily or will it continue to be a guessing game?
[21:38:20] <Kimtwister> hi nick
[21:38:43] <Jscala> I think more research will go into understanding rotation from ground up vs cloud down
[21:38:51] <cnmsales> i see
[21:38:51] <NG> hi. Hi Mr. Scala!
[21:38:56] <LauraD> Do you think tornado alley shifting more northward due to warmer weather trends and global warming?
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[21:39:53] <Kimtwister> brb
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[21:40:02] <Jscala> we really need to consider convection in generally, then jet stream position before we try to link climate with small scale phenomena like tornadoes
[21:40:56] <cnmsales> Dr Scala, does things like el nino's tend to help produce more tornados or the oposite? Or does it not really affect it at all?
[21:41:05] <@GeorgeT> Did you hear anything about how Project IHOP turned out? I know they were tasked with studying initiation.
[21:41:55] <cnmsales> Dr Scala, does things like el nino's tend to help produce more tornados or the oposite? Or does it not really affect it at all?
[21:42:52] <JScala> ENSO affects large scale patterns...which indirectly may make an envrionment more favorable for storms
[21:43:21] <JScala> ENSO does not directly generate tornadoes
[21:43:44] <RMK_TCU_W> Dr. Scala, over the years have you developed any theories of your own w/respect to tornadogenesis?
[21:43:45] <cnmsales> Dr Scala yes thats what I meant.
[21:43:48] <JScala> Think 1998..remember the Feb tornado outbreak in FL that killed >40
[21:44:19] <JScala> That was el nino year characterized by strong subtropical jet
[21:44:25] <@GeorgeT> yes, seems like the jet stayed over the south from Feb through April, with outbreak after outbreak across the south
[21:44:45] <@GeorgeT> I was out in the middle of the one that occurred on April 16
[21:44:51] <JScala> Right, those storms developed on an outflow boundary that increased the SRH
[21:45:00] <@GeorgeT> a very vivid date in my memory
[21:45:24] <JScala> I can those campers lying in a pile in Kissimmee
[21:45:24] <cnmsales> I see, is it safe to say that el nino's tend to keep out brakes further to the south?
[21:45:56] <@GeorgeT> I remembering seeing the newspaper that came out that had pictures of all 42 victims
[21:45:59] <JScala> the jet is further south, over the Gulf Coast which would favor deeper convection, svr weather there
[21:46:08] <@GeorgeT> *remember
[21:46:34] <NG> Dr. Scala, when do you think the next severe weather day will occur? Looking at the GFS... possibly Tuesday? What do you think?
[21:47:05] <JScala> That's my thinking...although the pattern seems to be more zonal, and further north.
[21:47:21] <weathernet> Dr Scala Here in Tampa Fl as you know we had three hurricanes pass over us last year do you have any perdictions for this comming hurricane season?
[21:48:21] <@GeorgeT> NG is a future SPC forecaster. He's only 15 and already chasing and forecasting!
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[21:48:38] <weathernet> Dr Scala Here in Tampa Fl as you know we had three hurricanes pass over us last year do you have any perdictions for this comming hurricane season?
[21:48:57] Parts: Randy (
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[21:49:08] <JScala> Chris Landsea's work suggests the post-1995 era will favor more TC
[21:49:30] <@GeorgeT> Yes it is Kim
[21:49:34] <JScala> Will more hit FL? Tough quesiton...depends on where the subtrop anticyclone sets up
[21:49:36] <@GeorgeT> tons of info there
[21:50:05] <JScala> Damage est for Fl is>30 billion so far
[21:50:25] <@GeorgeT> wow
[21:50:41] <cnmsales> So dr scala do you think tornadoes or hurricanes are more dangerous? Being from mississippi gulf coast i tend to think tornadoes
[21:50:42] <Kimtwister> are they gonna have stormchase 2005 on twc?
[21:50:46] <JScala> Speaking of SPC...I will be there in May participating in forecast program
[21:51:28] <JScala> Obviously, tornadoes generate stronger winds, but both can effectively rearrange your house and your life
[21:51:32] <@GeorgeT> If May's as crazy as the past two have been, Roger Edwards may make you a convective outlook forecaster
[21:51:33] <@GeorgeT> hehe
[21:51:42] <@GeorgeT> I'm sure they were glad to see the past two May's end
[21:52:00] <JScala> I heard it was nuts there and at some of the local offices
[21:52:21] <JoeG> heh
[21:53:19] <ef_away> Will MIllersville ever get a masters program in meteorology, i notice in NWA Job Lisitng there are looking to hire someone
[21:53:30] <ef_away> more faculty
[21:53:33] <JScala> I closed out some windows, maybe thats the prob
[21:53:43] <cnmsales> Dr Scala im wondering if you would mind commenting on hurricane camile.
[21:53:53] <JScala> OK, that annoucement is for my position
[21:54:16] <JScala> I've decided to pursue several private sector opps
[21:54:32] <JScala> including return to TV
[21:54:41] <@GeorgeT> awesome!
[21:54:44] <@GeorgeT> congrats
[21:54:58] <JScala> not TWC though...they appear to be going in another direction
[21:54:58] <@Caleb> Congrats. Hope you find something you like
[21:54:59] <ef_away> you should move to the plains then
[21:55:19] <JScala> My wife won't let me, but I will be returning more often to chase
[21:55:32] <Kimtwister> great congrats
[21:55:39] <Mike_HH> gas makes bust days more depressing......learned that yesterday
[21:55:49] <FrankM> lol
[21:55:50] <Kimtwister> heheh
[21:56:04] <JScala> thanks...I want to continue working with the local NWS offices and pursue my own deals
[21:56:04] <cnmsales> Dr Scala , im wondering if you could comment on Hurricane Camile
[21:56:07] <Mike_HH> so anyone going out this year, don't chase the bust days
[21:56:27] <@GeorgeT> lol Mike
[21:56:38] <JScala> Camille...what a storm...how high was the surge? >21' maybe ut was 26'
[21:56:40] <@GeorgeT> you just be sure to let us know which days those will be, ok?
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[21:56:57] <FrankM> good old chaing almanac
[21:57:01] <cnmsales> It was bad made it all the way past the railroad tracks which are almost a mile inland
[21:57:01] <JScala> hey, sure George...
[21:57:28] <JScala> Hurricane Hugo put a dolphin in the second story of a home in CHS
[21:57:40] <FrankM> second story?!
[21:57:40] <@Caleb> Wow
[21:57:40] <JScala> now that's a surge
[21:57:45] <Kimtwister> wow
[21:57:46] <@Caleb> Indeed
[21:57:52] <Kanani> holy mackeral
[21:57:52] <Kimtwister> i saw the dammage
[21:57:58] <JoeG> ouch
[21:58:02] <@GeorgeT> that would qualify as a debris
[21:58:10] <FrankM> lol...
[21:58:15] <cnmsales> I have heard rumors that the winds in camile reached almost 300 mph, is this true?
[21:58:18] <JScala> Camille's claim to fame is the hurricane party that killed 3o people
[21:58:19] <Kimtwister> there was a boat in a yard and a church roof ripped apart
[21:58:38] <cnmsales> Yes, the hurricane partys were very popular back then
[21:58:40] <ef_away> Any stuff on warning lead times, polygons warnings, svr wx criteria raised, you like to see change
[21:58:53] <@GeorgeT> polygons....good question EF
[21:59:09] <JScala> No, I don't know about 300 but Andrew suggested subscale vortices operate in the eyewall that can boost the wind above 200 mph
[21:59:21] <cnmsales> Amazing
[21:59:32] <JoeG> right, i remember hearing that
[21:59:43] <JScala> just look at the 1-min imagery...amazing
[22:00:07] <JScala> The Campbelltown tornado lead time was about 5min
[22:00:30] <JoeG> in other words, no time at all really
[22:00:32] <JScala> due to the rapid spin up of the vortex as the convection tracked across a warm front
[22:00:57] <JScala> well enough so the warning was issued and people heard it in time to take shelter
[22:01:20] <JScala> the warning saved lives...and it was based on LWX not CCX
[22:01:29] <JoeG> oh, good point
[22:01:34] <FrankM> LWX? CCX?
[22:01:37] <cnmsales> What is the major difference between the two?
[22:01:48] <JScala> Sterling radar vs State College
[22:02:20] <JScala> the tor developed between the two but LWX SRV caught the gate to gate shear that was missed by CCX
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[22:03:43] <ef_away> have you ever thought about writing a textbook on synoptic and mesoscale meteorology
[22:03:44] <@GeorgeT> Have you ever had a chance to check out any of the Gibson Ridge radar software yet?
[22:03:55] <ef_away> bluestein book is getting old now, lol
[22:03:59] <ef_away> s
[22:03:59] <@GeorgeT> oooops, sorry for the simultaneous question
[22:04:01] <Jscala> No to both questions
[22:04:25] <Jscala> I've thought about a forecast text..there is none
[22:04:36] <@GeorgeT> that would be nice
[22:04:42] <@GeorgeT> especially for people like me
[22:05:07] <@Caleb> I'd buy that
[22:05:13] <FrankM> what.. in your opinion.. would you believe to be a good forecasting routine to forecast svr wx?
[22:05:18] <@GeorgeT> I am strictly amateur and try to educate myself as much as possible
[22:05:26] <@GeorgeT> but there are limited resources
[22:06:30] <ef_away> i notice there is not many books out there, on synoptics, you got pettersons classic 2 volume set, bluestein 2 volume set, tim vasqquez books, weather analysis by djuric,
[22:06:56] <Jscala> also Carlson's book whihc I use with Palmen Mem Vol
[22:07:05] <FrankM> what.. in your opinion.. would you believe to be a good forecasting routine to forecast svr wx?
[22:07:21] <FrankM> or maybe just a good forecasting routine?
[22:07:34] <@GeorgeT> that could require a book to Frank
[22:07:35] <@GeorgeT> hehe
[22:07:41] <Jscala> I start with the water vapor, analyze upper air, then meso analysis of surface...boundaries are everything
[22:08:14] <Jscala> I am always amazed at what I find when I do a detailed analysis
[22:08:30] <LauraD> have drylines ever occured in the Great Lakes region?
[22:08:33] <Jscala> Last week;s HPC surface analyses confused the dry line and the CF
[22:08:34] <Kimtwister> here and tere room just listening tot he twc music
[22:08:52] <@GeorgeT> any tips for locating OFB's after they start to wash out a bit? You prefer sfc maps for example? Other tools?
[22:08:59] <ef_away> gravity waves,
[22:09:04] <ef_away> are important
[22:09:21] <Jscala> ONe could argue a pseudo dry line actually made it to PA in May 2003, same one associated with the KS outbreak
[22:10:02] <Jscala> OFB...surface analysis coupled with 1 km vis, and animated
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[22:10:12] <@GeorgeT> evening Nick
[22:10:21] <@GeorgeT> thanks John!
[22:10:39] <Jscala> are we done?
[22:10:48] <JoeG> only when you are
[22:11:00] <JoeG> you control the schedule here
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[22:11:00] <Mike_HH> is there an amount of sbcape that you can't achieve without having convection.....one forecaster insists 5000cape is impossible
[22:11:01] <Jscala> let's keep going a bit longer
[22:11:02] <@GeorgeT> We will wrap up anytime you get tired
[22:11:11] <JoeG> k, its all up to you
[22:11:33] <Jscala> remember July 1995..the killer heat wave?
[22:11:38] <JoeG> ic
[22:11:41] <JoeG> who dosent
[22:11:44] <@GeorgeT> I do
[22:11:53] <@GeorgeT> I fought some fires in July that year
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[22:11:58] <Jscala> I saw a SBCAPE of 6500 J/kg in IAD sounding that was never realized because it was capped
[22:12:12] <RMK_TCU_W> Very hot...southern WI had some dewpoints of 84!
[22:12:14] <Mike_HH> someone needs to tell mr bookbinder this, lol
[22:12:19] <JoeG> Also, i would like to thank everyone else for keeping the chat so clean
[22:12:27] <SA> I believe 5-26-97 in eastern OK had incredible CAPE values
[22:12:31] <@GeorgeT> lol Mike, we'll save the log
[22:12:39] <SA> I don't know if they were realized, but there were definitely storms that day
[22:12:40] <JayM> so did jarrel, tx
[22:12:40] <JoeG> i remember that too
[22:12:45] <MikeDinGRI> Jarrell also had some very large CAPE values
[22:12:49] <@GeorgeT> The Jarrell, TX day was extreme too
[22:12:52] <JayM> close to 7000
[22:12:52] <Mike_HH> yes, I remember plenty of examples too
[22:12:58] <@GeorgeT> lol, same thought, same time
[22:13:03] <ef_away> the oax example
[22:13:07] <ef_away> sounding that H has
[22:13:11] <Jscala> the july 15 1995 derecho in upstate NY realized the CAPE
[22:13:32] <FrankM> now that event.. i remember
[22:13:36] <Jscala> Oh, Jarrel was phenomenal..the 12 Z sounding was nothing
[22:13:37] <Kimtwister> heres a cool song i remember
[22:13:58] <Mike_HH> I don't even know where that sounding is now
[22:14:00] <Jscala> but an outflow interacted with a front and the rest is history
[22:14:03] <Mike_HH> oh spc page
[22:14:24] <Jscala> Check it out..it was unremarkable
[22:14:35] <ef_away> John, what do you think of the WRF model vs the NAM has the WRF outperform the NAM yet
[22:14:52] <ef_away> i notice millersville has wrf model graphics
[22:15:15] <Jscala> we will be using the wrf and nam at SPC during the project so I am intrigued to compare them
[22:15:39] <Mike_HH>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/even.../OAX_00_obs.gif
[22:15:43] <Jscala> yes, we run the wrf using nam initial fields...it performs well
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[22:16:15] <RMK_TCU_W> Roger Edwards saved an image from LBF back in the late 90s w/9000 j/kg CAPE.
[22:16:24] <RMK_TCU_W> I believe a giant MCS was the end result.
[22:16:31] <Jscala> 9000! that's nuclear
[22:16:52] <Mike_HH> I've seen 7000 on the spc meso page on a couple chases
[22:16:56] <Jscala> think of the updraft strength
[22:17:02] <Mike_HH> but figured since it was sbcape it was wrong
[22:17:27] <Jscala> I'd like to know the cape for the aurora storm in NE last June
[22:17:28] <ef_away> do you like using sbcape in your forecasting
[22:17:59] <Jscala> can be misleading since a parcel will interact with its environment...i trend toward mlcape
[22:18:13] <Jscala> with a look at sbcape
[22:19:01] <ef_away> any thoughts on use of forecast soundings
[22:19:02] <MikeDinGRI>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/even.../OAX_00_obs.gif
[22:19:05] <Jscala> in fact the idea of cape is really inaccurate but what's better?
[22:19:14] <MikeDinGRI> that's the OAX 00Z from June 22, 2003
[22:19:43] <ef_away> how accurate are the forecast soundings, does it underestimate CAPE and other parameters
[22:19:44] <Jscala> I look at RUC fcsts for nowcasts, and NAM soundings to get a general feel but there are
[22:19:46] <MikeDinGRI> ML CAPE was over 4000J/kg
[22:19:48] <Jscala> inherent errors
[22:20:08] <Jscala> had to be to produce that hailstone
[22:20:33] <@GeorgeT> ok.....
[22:20:40] <@GeorgeT> since we have a pause, I'll ask another question
[22:20:51] <Mike_HH> yeah mlcape was 5800 on the July 12 04 beast.....but that was at oax....was likely higher west where the storm took place.....that storm held 65-70k tops for over an hour
[22:20:52] <Jscala> we are getting into the grey area where we use a synoptic scale model, I know it says NAM, to forecast
[22:20:59] <Jscala> mesoscale events
[22:21:16] <MikeDinGRI> That was an impressive beast, wish I had some stills of it
[22:21:37] <@GeorgeT> If you followed the Nov 10, 2002 outbreak, had the middle portion of that outbreak filled in with supercells, do you think the total number of tornadoes that day could have rivaled the Super Outbreak?
[22:21:45] <Jscala> the mesoscale is the speed of sound htat Chuck Yeager broke through
[22:22:09] <Jscala> interesting question,,George
[22:22:25] <Jscala> One of my research interests is late season severe outbreaks
[22:22:44] <Jscala> this was a classic event,,and the strongest outbreak of 2002
[22:23:06] <Mike_HH> and the thought was linear the days ahead of it
[22:23:14] <RMK_TCU_W> Here's a re-post of that 9000+ CAPE sounding:
http://limetap.com/images/hugecape.gif
[22:23:15] <@GeorgeT> yeah
[22:23:19] <Jscala> the super outbreak held a 500 jet of 120 knots
[22:23:28] <Mike_HH> yikes
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[22:23:35] <Mike_HH> thta doesn't sound fun
[22:23:39] <@GeorgeT> hey Aaron
[22:23:42] <AaronK> howdy
[22:23:52] <ef_away> aaron ask some questions
[22:23:56] <MikeDinGRI> Since you're interested in late season outbreaks, how significant do you think evapotranspiration is in supplying LL moisture for NW flow scenarios?
[22:24:03] <Jscala> not on Nov 10, but I suspect the downsear diffluence was extensive given the width of the outbreak
[22:24:17] <Mike_HH> I wonder what storm speeds were for the super outbreak....must of had some realy backed low levels
[22:24:34] <@GeorgeT> some moved as fast as 55-60 mph, I think
[22:24:42] <@GeorgeT> they were truckin'
[22:24:46] <AaronK> Was also broken into 3 lines I thought
[22:24:52] <Jscala> I'll ask dan mccarthy...he ran an eta run using the reanalysis data
[22:25:31] <Nick_at_Nite> some of the radar based storm motions were 50-55 knots
[22:25:34] <Jscala> so the deep layer was extensive, also there were multiple surface boundaries to focus SRH
[22:26:24] <@GeorgeT> it's amazing how the directional shear was so perfect for tornadoes, even violent tornadoes, over such a wide area
[22:26:30] <@GeorgeT> never saw anything like that before
[22:26:33] <Jscala> the NW flow stuff generates derechos which may benefit from ll moisture
[22:26:35] <@GeorgeT> basically from AL to Canada
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[22:27:00] <Jscala> right, 15 tornadoes in progress at the same time
[22:27:03] <Mike_HH> I love nw flow in NE in July....some of the best sups I've seen have been in it
[22:27:36] <Jscala> you should chase in CO...its there all the time in July
[22:27:42] <MikeDinGRI> I've had some great NW flow luck in IA as well...one of my most favorite tornadoes was from a NW flow setup
[22:28:08] <Jscala> the ll shear can be awesme if the flow backs
[22:28:26] <Mike_HH> that big event july 7 in NC KS was nw flow.......
[22:28:34] <Mike_HH> TWC had that amazing looking supercell on for days after it
[22:28:36] <Nick_at_Nite> there is a paper and slide show on the SPC publications website from last year concerning the 74 outbreak
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[22:29:05] <ef_away> any good forecasting tips for northwest flow days
[22:29:06] <@GeorgeT> Yes, that has tons of good stuff Nick
[22:29:11] <Jscala> that is probably dan's work..he ran a svr fcst workshop using the 1974 case
[22:29:11] <@GeorgeT> thanks for bringing that up
[22:29:16] <@GeorgeT> I had forgotten it
[22:29:27] <JoeG> Well, guys im gonna go, cya later
[22:29:34] <@GeorgeT> nite Joe
[22:29:49] <JoeG> And Dr. Scala, thank you very much for taking the time to chat with us!
[22:29:51] <JoeG>
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[22:30:08] <Jscala> This was great...I'd like to do it again
[22:30:20] <@GeorgeT> feel free to come back anytime you like
[22:30:25] <@GeorgeT> we chat nightly in #stormchase
[22:30:35] <JoeG> Yeah, we do.
[22:30:36] <FrankM> we arent going anywhere anytime soon
[22:30:38] <@GeorgeT> although sometimes we tend to veer in all different sorts of directions
[22:30:42] <JoeG> heck no
[22:31:00] <Jscala> Thanks, George...I will do that, particularly after I return from OK
[22:31:03] <AdrianElizabeth> We are here 24/7
[22:31:06] <@GeorgeT> the evenings before a moderate or higher risk we tend to be all business though
[22:31:07] <@GeorgeT> hehe
[22:31:17] <cnmsales> TY for answering all our questions tonight DR
[22:31:18] <FrankM> we actually wear business suits
[22:31:23] <FrankM> lol
[22:31:27] <AdrianElizabeth> as if
[22:31:29] <JayM> do we own business siuts??
[22:31:32] <JoeG> so, Guys, Girls, and Dr. Scala, ill talk to you guys later!
[22:31:39] <FrankM> cya joe
[22:31:45] <Jscala> ok, i'll be back
[22:31:45] * MikeDinGRI don't wear ties anymore!
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[22:31:48] <@Caleb> Thank you for your time with us, Dr. Scala. Fascinating and informing chat
[22:31:51] <AdrianElizabeth> bye Joe
[22:31:53] <ef_away> thank you for visiting us john
[22:31:57] <Jscala> Good night'
[22:31:57] <Mike_HH> thanks for coming in John
[22:32:00] <@GeorgeT> yes, this has been lots of fun
[22:32:10] <JoeG> good night John
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