2005 Season

[Chris Hayes]

Any signs of this season picking up anytime soon? I know it's early but I absolutely depise patterns like the one we're in now. I go on my 3 week chase trip the weeks of May 16, 23, and 30th, so we got plenty of time for things to go nuts. Just wondering what some of your guys' thoughts are.

 

[fplowman]

ehhh... its gonnner be a bust.. RofLmao... :lol:

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Any signs of this season picking up anytime soon? I know it's early but I absolutely depise patterns like the one we're in now. I go on my 3 week chase trip the weeks of May 16, 23, and 30th, so we got plenty of time for things to go nuts. Just wondering what some of your guys' thoughts are.

I can just about guarantee that the pattern will change at least 4 times between now and early may... I wouldn't want to read anyone's response here about anything specific regarding svr potential next week, much less in two months! All one could argue would be based on statistic or maybe anecdotal points, but both of those certainly aren't event-specific...

The CPC does highlight a risk of svr from March 20-22nd across se OK, eastern TX, LA, and the rest of the Gulf coast states ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ts/threats.html )... But again, this is just a broadly-forecast possibility based on current model output.

 

[Shane Adams]

Just wondering what some of your guys' thoughts are.

I'm glad I don't have to schedule my chase season

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm still holding to my January guess in 2005 Storm Prediction Thread:

My guess is that the northeast Pacific will cool to normal or below, whereas the north Atlantic will hold on the warm side throughout the spring. This will tend to hold the ST jet down into Mexico northeastward into the southeast US. This is I think a good early pattern, evoking early May 2003 http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.4.26.2003.gif

I guess an about-average season altogether, with some really crazy chases May 5-15th.

My guesses for the winter held pretty well: October

The whole northeast Pacific has been anomalously warm for quite awhile. I'd be betting on generally cold and stormy east of the Mississippi, rather mild in the west, and some split-flow storminess in the southwest.

and December

As seen from this SST anomaly chart http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html I think it's not really a classic El Nino. There are 2C positive anomalies over the northeast Pacific and the central Atlantic. I think both features are tending to lock ridging in those locations with troughing into the midwest and north-central US. As the flow around the Pacific ridge slides down the Rockies spine from Alaska it would seem to undergo radiational cooling that encourages little short-waves and cut-offs into the southwest US that find their way eastward into the main flow.

If the pattern is locking in for awhile as the GFS may be suggesting, the prog is coooooold and dry in the north-central and upper midwest regularly blasting to the east coast, unsettled in the southwest and Texas, and downright ugly in the southeast up through the mid-Atlantic. Happy New Year, you poor suckers!

The high-index blocking pattern looks to be settling into a zonal/split flow with the Aleutian low reasserting. To my eyeballs, this hemispheric circulation cycle will tend to pull and upwell colder waters back into the Gulf of Alaska; and continue process of pulling the large low-latitude Atlantic warm water pool up and west into the eastern Atlantic (eliminating the cooling brought about by previous pattern's troughing over eastern Canada).

When the low-index pattern settling in breaks down in the next cycle, I'm still placing my bet on a 2003-type season temporally displaced five or ten days later. FWIW.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I've never liked venturing guesses this early ... just never know ... things change constantly between now and May. Noticed this morning that GFS indicates a possibility for severe next week over eastern/southern TX around Tuesday.

Typically we see some fast moving systems toward the end of March into April ... possibly a couple of cold core scenarios or something similar ... but I really don't take anything seriously until May. The March-April stuff that does happen is just a warm up for the good stuff.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

The CPC does highlight a risk of svr from March 20-22nd across se OK, eastern TX, LA, and the rest of the Gulf coast states ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ts/threats.html )... But again, this is just a broadly-forecast possibility based on current model output.

But, for us poor souls suffering some severe SDS, it at least serves notice that spring is closer than it feels right now. BTW, just had a brief period of wintry mix through here

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_ten_156m.gif

Kiss the gulf good bye for a period after that.....lol.

 

[mikegeukes]

I like to look at the sea surface temperatues of the Gulf of Mexico,
especially for the months of March and April.
15C=59F, 20C=68F, 25C=77F, 30C=86F

[Broken External Image]:http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/gulfmex.c.gif

Mike