2/8/09 FCST: TX, OK, KS

[Andrew Pritchard]

Not sure I see a ton to get really excited about other than Wednesday, and that will be east of where you're all wanting to chase likely in the lower Mississippi Valley area. This will likely be another early season event with as mentioned before, strong forcing, minimal cape and raging storm speeds but if any day has any tornado potential I'd bet on Wednesday.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I agree that Sunday is not looking so good, but Tuesday could be a good day in Texas and maybe Oklahoma. Like mentioned earlier I wouldn't be surprised to see it slow down even more over the next few days which would be ideal!!

 

[Rich Thompson]

I don't see how moisture *won't* be a problem for Sunday. Low-level trajectories and current conditions across the Gulf basin are terrible by severe storm standards. Low-level flow remains offshore across FL only 48-60 hrs from the so-called "event", with teens surface dewpoints and pw values this morning of less than 0.10"! The frontal intrusion extends across almost all of the Caribbean Sea, leaving us no alternative but to regenerate a new maritime tropical air mass in the boundary layer. The whole process will take several more days to unravel the ongoing cold/dry advection and replenishment of dry air into the boundary layer through subsidence/mixing. Plus, we need low-level trajectories to be at least from the east invof Cuba and across the srn Gulf of Mexico. Again, this will take a few days to fix based on the current synoptic flow regime.

Maybe things will look more interesting by Tue-Wed when the second wave ejects. Inland warm sector dewpoints in the 60s will be likely by then.

Rich T.

 

[Angie Norris]

I've been watching this one for a couple of days now. I'm seeing a nocturnal squall line event here. There is some speed shear, but winds are more unidirectional with height. Moisture is lacking. With 500mb winds at 50-60kts, this one will blow through quite quickly. Too bad it's going to be dark thirty...I'd bet the shelf cloud would be quite sweet

 

[Chris Nuttall]

Since there is a FCST thread ongoing for this event, I have merged the two threads.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Yep, northerly flow all the way down to Hispaniola and dewpoints in the 40s in Cuba this morning. That last front really really scoured out the moisture from the Gulf. As a result, I wouldn't be too optimistic for chasing if I could even go, which I can't.

AJL

 

[Robert Edmonds]

South eastern New Mexico is the most likely place for any severe storms to occur. Instability will be small with at most ~1000 J/kg cape. Most of the convective energy however will be at least 2km above the surface given the theta-e profiles. Combined with the LCL hight, I suspect most will be high based storms. Mean storm motion will be ~30knts. While there is ample upper level winds, I suspect that the storms could be sheared apart. However, given that gas is so cheap, compared to last year, I'm tempted to go out. If for nothing else it would give the equipment a test run. If I am to go out, I would target somewhere between Odessa, TX, and Carlsbad, NM.

 

[Mike Johnson]

well, dewpoints have increased to the mid/upper 40s to lower 50s across much of West TX and the Panhandle. However, this moisture has left us in the grunge. Even at 130 PM...we have low overcast with temps in the mid/upper 50s. Less cloud cover over SE NM will allow the atmosphere to destabilize upstream but it looks like any convection that develops in the Panhandle will be elevated.

This system remains very dynamic, so the synoptic forcing should be enough to spark convection. Shear is good but not sure how much instability will be realized. We'll probably have a one and done tonight as the trof swings through tonight. With the cold temps aloft, I think some elevated hailers will be scattered around with a few windbags possible. Doesn't look like anything to get excited about, but there will probably be "something" going on in our neck of the woods this evening/tonight.