2/7-8, 2010 Southern Plains winter storm

[Rocky Rascovich]

Latest models still suggest another wintry blast will affect much of Oklahoma starting Sunday afternoon and lasting Thru Monday.. both GFS and NAM generate quite a bit QPF behind the 0 deg. isotherm..OKC and TUL may pick up towards 6 inches by Monday evening.. I'm concerned about 20-30ph winds later Monday that may create near white out conditions with this.. and regardless of conditions, I'll be out on the road with my job. I love winter.. but believe it or not.. I think I'm now looking forward to spring.. especially if I have to work out in this stuff. So.. what are your thought?

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Latest models still suggest another wintry blast will affect much of Oklahoma starting Sunday afternoon and lasting Thru Monday.. both GFS and NAM generate quite a bit QPF behind the 0 deg. isotherm..OKC and TUL may pick up towards 6 inches by Monday evening.. I'm concerned about 20-30ph winds later Monday that may create near white out conditions with this.. and regardless of conditions, I'll be out on the road with my job. I love winter.. but believe it or not.. I think I'm now looking forward to spring.. especially if I have to work out in this stuff. So.. what are your thought?

I have been keeping an eye on this system the last few days. I live in extreme NE OK where we could receive anywhere from 4-8 inches. As usual, it will depend on the track of the uppper level system. At least we should be having any significant accumulations of ice or sleet as temps. in the upper levels appear cold enough for the falling snow to stay as snow instead of melting on the way down. I guess there can be a brief period of freezing precip. but overall not a major deal.

This has been quite the winter for sure. I am exactly like you Rocky. I love all types of weather including Winter, but enough is enough already and I too am ready for Spring.

 

[Chris Heater]

Quite an amazing winter. Doesn't really happen that often to have 2 major storms happen so closely to each other. Sadly...this one looks to pass me by to the south. I have a hope that it would shift north...but it doesn't look like it! Can't complain though. Our snowcover was just renewed last night. Have about 2 inches on the ground

 

[Andrew Francis]

OK bracing for another storm. The people here are just shocked with how much winter weather we are getting. There are some in S OK still without power.

I hate betting on total wrap-around for storm in OK, but the storm a couple weeks ago dumped six inches in it's wrap around, so we will see I suppose.

Still thinking the track may be a little too far north for central OK, but worth watching for sure. This has been the best winter I can remember here in OK and I have been here for twenty years.

 

[Chris Vagasky]

This is a great winter...reminds me of being back home in Michigan.

By the WRF and GFS, all critical thicknesses are south of the OKC/Tulsa metros mid - late day Moday...with precip ahead of the storm and wrap around, 3-6 seems plausible for the area.

And let's not forget that this guy has a brother coming in Thursday or Friday, which the GFS Bufkit algorithms already put at another 5 or so inches of snow.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

OKLA Snow Storm!

Rocky,

The 12Z model runs looks like along and just north of the I-44 corridor has the highest snow totals impacting the cities of Joplin-Tulsa-OKC-PNC-END area. The range of snow totals 4-10" looks like a reasonable amount.

The 12KM WRF has arctic air surging south across OKLA as the system moves east late Monday afternoon temp down in the 10 range in NE OK by 12Z Tuesday.

It looks like all we need at the Tulsa airport is additional 14" this winter and will break the all time snow record for a season.

Normally March can produces some of our heaviest snow's in NE OKLA!!

 

[Billy Griffin]

Don't want to throw "noise" into this thread, but it's just amazing how much of a winter season this has been..... EAST of the Rockies. In stark contrast, today in Seattle = sunny again, highs in the upper 60s! We had one cold snap back in December; the rest has been quite warm. The trees and budding, grass is growing and the flowers are in bloom up here! Enjoy the exciting weather back east, everyone! This looks to be another MAJOR winter weather event for much of the eastern US.

 

[Chris Vagasky]

From the NWS Norman Heavy Snowfall Study (Monthly and Geographic Distribution of Heavy Snow Events in Oklahoma, 1951 - 2001)

There is usually a repeat frequency of 1-2 years for much of Oklahoma between heavy snow events of 4+ inches. This is potentially the 3rd such event in a little over a month...

 

[Bill Schintler]

Winter Storm Update

A lengthy winter storm will bring significant snowfall to central and eastern Iowa starting Sunday afternoon and lasting through Tuesday, followed by strong winds and colder temperatures. Most areas should see at least a half-foot of snowfall over a 36 to 48-hour period, with some locations receiving up to 10 inches. The other weather hazard will be blowing and drifting of the new snowfall. Winds will increase out of the northwest on Tuesday, resulting in significant blowing and drifting of the snow. Travel in rural areas will be difficult or impossible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Here are forecasts for specific locations:

Cedar Rapids, IA (Eastern IA Airport):
Light snow will start at 5:30 PM on Sunday. Snow will become moderate to heavy Monday afternoon into the evening. Storm total accumulation by Tuesday afternoon: 8.2 inches.

Iowa City, IA:
Light snow will start at 6:00 PM on Sunday. Snow will become moderate to heavy Monday afternoon into the evening. Storm total accumulation by Tuesday afternoon: 7.9 inches.

North Linn Co., IA (Paris and Coggon):
Light snow will start at 5:00 PM on Sunday. Snow will become moderate to heavy Monday afternoon into the evening. Storm total accumulation by Tuesday afternoon: 8.6 inches.

Marengo, IA:
Light snow will start at 5:30 PM on Sunday. Snow will become moderate to heavy Monday afternoon into the evening. Storm total accumulation by Tuesday afternoon: 8.2 inches.

Union, IA:
Light snow will start at 12:30 PM on Sunday. Snow will become moderate to heavy Monday afternoon into the evening. Storm total accumulation by Tuesday afternoon: 10.1 inches

Discussion:
An intense H5 low is located W of the Hudson Bay, while another potent ULVL system is entering CA. 12 hour H5 height falls in excess of -60 m were centered over Manitoba and SRN NV. Locally, H5 and H7 maps and WV imagery indicates a shortwave over ERN IA, and light snow associated with this feature is falling in WRN IA. Further E, a SFC ridge centered over the WRN Great Lakes extends across the Upper-Midwest, which will maintain dry WX in this area through Sunday morning.

A complicated scenario will unfold over the next three days as the piece of energy currently over Manitoba dives S into the Upper-Midwest and phases with an eastward tracking shortwave currently over SRN CA. These systems will phase over IA and MO on Monday with SFC cyclogenesis over WRN KY/TN Monday night in a zone of strong divergence aloft. This low will track NE and then N towards SRN Lake Michigan on Tuesday. Meanwhile, an inverted trough will extend NW and then W into IA for the duration of the event which will transition into a deformation zone through Tuesday. Latest model runs have trended with a slightly slower and more southerly track of the H5 low, with a TROWEL developing from NRN IL into ERN IA; coincident with UVM increasing to -8ub/s to -10mb/s. This will maintain an easterly moisture fetch aloft along the I-80 and US-20 corridors, with more moisture ingested into the system over ERN IA then earlier FCST. Mid-level dry-slotting will remain S of the IA/MO border for most of the event. Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper-low will track E and bomb off the Mid-Atlantic coast, resulting in another major storm in areas affected by the recent storm.

In IA, the dendrite growth zone will deepen to 50-70 mb Monday evening with CAA aloft. Models are consistent with developing 0.65 to 0.70 inches of storm total QPF over the entire area, with a conservative 13:1 to 16:1 snow/water ratio yielding a healthy eight inches of snow in most locations. Additionally, the 00Z NAM has trended upward with QPF by about 0.1 inches. Once the storm tracks east of the area, a fresh snow pack and northwesterly flow aloft will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air. The coldest temperatures will be Thursday morning, with most locations in northeast IA in the single digits below zero.

- bill s
9:33 PM CST, 02/06/10

 

[Chris Heater]

Well...yesterday afternoon to my amazement we were issued under a winter storm watch. Looks like this morning they upped our snowfall totals slightly! 6 to 7" of snow is expected with high winds. What a winter! I can't remember the last time we have had continual snowpack on the ground as long as we do. Usually the snow melts within a couple days after the snowfall...but this year, we have only had 12 to 15 days with no snow on the ground. May not sound like much...but its different thank I and others here are used to

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=oax&storyid=47880&source=0

Omaha is having a historic winter this year too. Not sure how they ever recorded getting below 4 inches and missing that one. Sure never got below 4 inches here. Seems all those other snow depth duration records will be broken. We started snowing Thursday again I think it was and it's been snowing since. Just enough to offset any melting being near 32F. Tacked on another 6-7 I'd guess in this last stretch. Wet stuff that falls straight down for once and sticks to everything. 2-4 forecasted with this upcoming system, followed by cold.

The record straight snow depth of over 1 inch is a whopping 74 straight days here. Most years we're lucky to see a couple straight weeks without it melting. That'll be an impressive thing to break and looks rather likely. Given it will be broken so early yet, the 19th of this month, there is a pretty good chance to completely smash it. Has to be over a foot out there again now. It's crazy you don't have to go far west and they've had bare ground most of the winter. Then remember there was a 7 inch snow this year October 10th! Crazy winter.

Some massive differences for Norfolk's records lol. Thanks to the 1949 blizzard/winter. They'd need to keep an inch or more till April 8th to break that one lol. 122 days compared to Omaha's 74. Couple hours apart, not even that far.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Looks like round three is on the way. I am prepared for this one though...we bought chains for the vehicles yesterday. Living in the boonies, the roads do not get touched for days...and I am tired of missing work.

 

[Joel Wright]

Looks like a pretty impressive and very wide swath of accumulating snow on the way. A large chunk of the Midwest will see 5" or more out of this storm.

One of the areas that could end up with the most snow would be from north-central into southeastern IA. Probably along a line from Mason City to Ottumwa. The northern stream energy will essentially stall, and then pivot right over this zone enhancing snowfall. Average model precip in the 0.60-0.80" range has been common through this zone. With conservative ratios in the 15:1 range, this would point to some potential for 9-12" of snow somewhere in that zone.

Far northeast IL and southeast WI may see some additional enhancement from Lake Michigan. As the deform/trowel sets up overhead on Tuesday, cold 850mb winds scream in off of the lake. That should surely add at least a few inches to the system snows. Snowfall amounts in Chicago should exceed 8". Amounts of a foot or more are certainly not out of the question if the lake machine kicks in stronger than expected.

Another area to watch is northern IN, southern MI, and northern OH. The surface low ramps up in intensity just in time to enhance snowfall in this corridor. Models have been fairly unanimous in indicating this.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

Is anyone else a little surprised at the warnings and estimates that are coming out for this storm? I had high hopes for the St Louis area but I am not seeing it. THe only place I see with the potential for widespread warning criteria snow would be southern MO, N AR, and places in IA. Maybe I'm wrong but I see more widespread advisory criteria snow.

 

[Joel Wright]

Is anyone else a little surprised at the warnings and estimates that are coming out for this storm? I had high hopes for the St Louis area but I am not seeing it. THe only place I see with the potential for widespread warning criteria snow would be southern MO, N AR, and places in IA. Maybe I'm wrong but I see more widespread advisory criteria snow.

Many areas will see warning type totals, but due to the longevity of the storm the amounts may not reach warning criteria in the given amount of time. So even if an area can pick up 8-9" total, the fact that it may take two days to accumulate that would mean a long duration advisory type snow scenario.