Following quickly on the heels of Thr/Fri s/w is yet MUCH STRONGER s/w trough that will bring some very strong QG dynamics with it of which is more in line with early spring type systems.
Due to the strong dynamics of this system very strong southerly winds out of ahead of this system Saturday afternoon and evening may be wind advisory criteria over parts of Texas. Low dewpoints across western TX may see temps spike Saturday afternoon. At 12Z Sunday the GFS places a deep lee cyclone low over east-central NM with the 32 line drapped from GLD to PTT. By 18Z the 32 line has pushed south to US160 due to evap cooling of heavy precip over SWRN KS. The high amount of QPF depicted by the model would lead one to believe precip rates will be on the high end. By 00Z Mon, the sfc low is progged to be right over Lubbock with the 32 line from AMA-ELK-END-ICT. Low level flow out of the east is depicted from I-40 north to I-70. Moisture inflow from Ark/MO promises to be stout either way with this system. Unfortunately forecast soundings for this system arent available via Earls page due the system being so far out in time.
This system certainly bears watching as the dynamics with this system promise to produce sig precip across portions of OK and TX. As with all winter systems, the track of the upper low will be a critical factor in determining who gets rain versus snow or any other form of frozen precip. There will also be plenty of cold air at the sfc with this system that lack/extent of frozen precip will not be a problem
STAY TUNED
Due to the strong dynamics of this system very strong southerly winds out of ahead of this system Saturday afternoon and evening may be wind advisory criteria over parts of Texas. Low dewpoints across western TX may see temps spike Saturday afternoon. At 12Z Sunday the GFS places a deep lee cyclone low over east-central NM with the 32 line drapped from GLD to PTT. By 18Z the 32 line has pushed south to US160 due to evap cooling of heavy precip over SWRN KS. The high amount of QPF depicted by the model would lead one to believe precip rates will be on the high end. By 00Z Mon, the sfc low is progged to be right over Lubbock with the 32 line from AMA-ELK-END-ICT. Low level flow out of the east is depicted from I-40 north to I-70. Moisture inflow from Ark/MO promises to be stout either way with this system. Unfortunately forecast soundings for this system arent available via Earls page due the system being so far out in time.
This system certainly bears watching as the dynamics with this system promise to produce sig precip across portions of OK and TX. As with all winter systems, the track of the upper low will be a critical factor in determining who gets rain versus snow or any other form of frozen precip. There will also be plenty of cold air at the sfc with this system that lack/extent of frozen precip will not be a problem
STAY TUNED