2/28/2010 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Following quickly on the heels of Thr/Fri s/w is yet MUCH STRONGER s/w trough that will bring some very strong QG dynamics with it of which is more in line with early spring type systems.

Due to the strong dynamics of this system very strong southerly winds out of ahead of this system Saturday afternoon and evening may be wind advisory criteria over parts of Texas. Low dewpoints across western TX may see temps spike Saturday afternoon. At 12Z Sunday the GFS places a deep lee cyclone low over east-central NM with the 32 line drapped from GLD to PTT. By 18Z the 32 line has pushed south to US160 due to evap cooling of heavy precip over SWRN KS. The high amount of QPF depicted by the model would lead one to believe precip rates will be on the high end. By 00Z Mon, the sfc low is progged to be right over Lubbock with the 32 line from AMA-ELK-END-ICT. Low level flow out of the east is depicted from I-40 north to I-70. Moisture inflow from Ark/MO promises to be stout either way with this system. Unfortunately forecast soundings for this system arent available via Earls page due the system being so far out in time.

This system certainly bears watching as the dynamics with this system promise to produce sig precip across portions of OK and TX. As with all winter systems, the track of the upper low will be a critical factor in determining who gets rain versus snow or any other form of frozen precip. There will also be plenty of cold air at the sfc with this system that lack/extent of frozen precip will not be a problem

STAY TUNED

 

[Andrew Francis]

Looking forward to this one. I think the one on Thursday night will be quick, but could lay down a decent little snowpack in some of OK that will only help aid in colder air present before the big daddy storm.

 

[Darren Wilson]

00Z GFS shows a tight QPF gradient from W. Central down through S. Central OK. Model soundings indicate snow is more favorable to the north of this line from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. It will be interesting to see how far south the cold air can make it. Also, the ECMWF appears to be a bit further south. This should be interesting

 

[Bonnie Frank]

SO hoping this will by-pass western Kansas. I've had it with winter. =[

 

[Chris Carter]

Hopefully the NAM will get a better hold on this, the 00Z GFS doesn't hint anywhere close to a winter storm for the southern plains. By Sunday afternoon the rain/snow line is situated along the NE/KS border while precip breaks out across the TX/OK panhandle and western KS with temps in the upper 30's and lower 40's. By Monday afternoon the rain/snow line finally moves far enough south along OK/TX border, but by that time most of the precip is east and along the TX coast line.

 

[Darren Wilson]

12Z GFS has sped this cyclone up a bit, at least over OK, with precip ending by 18Z Monday here. It still appears we could still see some decent snow but how much will stick is still in question.