Robert Dewey
EF5
Okay, not exactly a sealed deal... but the 12z NAM is very close to having an all out ice storm for the Pontiac, MI area. It has been trending colder at the surface, and BUFKIT now shows temps making up to a sweltering 32.36F on E/NE wind during heaviest precip. If some of that colder air north of the boundary can undercut the warmer air being pumped in at 850mb, I think things could get interesting. Most ice storms I've seen around here have featured temps not much warmer or colder than 30F, and the last big one a few years ago was actually a "surprise" event starting out as a ZR advisory (temps expected to warm, but never did).
I know there's a lot of thermodynamics involved with melting / freezing processes. Rapidly melting snowfall in the presence of rain seems like it would help cool the surface layer in the absence of WAA... but then again, freezing releases heat.
It will be interesting to watch.
I know there's a lot of thermodynamics involved with melting / freezing processes. Rapidly melting snowfall in the presence of rain seems like it would help cool the surface layer in the absence of WAA... but then again, freezing releases heat.
It will be interesting to watch.