2/13/2007 FCST: TX / LA / MS / AL / FL

It appears the southern tropical jet will go from weak to quite active starting this weekend. A series of storms in the Pacific are moving in and models are indicating severs wx from about I-35 south of the Red River to around Austin, straight across to the Atlantic. This includes Houston, all of Louisiana, and pretty much all areas south of I-20, but north of a Tampa to Melbourne line by Tuesday. I'm thinking a good squall line, with isolated supercells from about Mobile and east to Jacksonville. It's still too early to really make a good judgement, by all signs here in NE Florida are pointing to the very least, strong storms with gusty winds. That's what they said for the 2nd, we'll see.

SPC
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
 
I've been watching the severe threat across East Texas on the 12th for a few days now, trying not to get excited early. My greatest concerns are 1) the cold front surging south faster than models currently indicate, 2) cloud cover - low level clouds not mixing out due to cirrus deck, 3) scattered morning to midday showers associated with strong 850 jet limiting instability.

Asside from those issues, the overall setup looks good for severe storms. The shear and instability forecast by the GFS support supercells. But the three main uncertainties basically leave the door open for the storm mode. I don't know if it's a good thing or a curse that the latest GFS (12z Friday) keeps the front north of the red river. It indicates a dryline will initiate convection across South Central Texas, opening the door for supercells over Southeast & East Texas. We are still 3 days out...so that will change!
 
Conditions are beginning to change here along the Alabama/Mississippi line. Dewpoint has started to clime sharply in the last few hours. We are up to 47 degrees from a consistent 35/37 most of the afternoon and evening.
 
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