1997-05-27: Jarrell, TX F5

[Bob Hartig]

I agree: you've offered an excellent post. Your writing skills are superb.

 

[Shawn Schuman]

I appreciate the kind words, Bob. I've actually been meaning to contact you. I came across your blog when I was researching my post on the Palm Sunday tornadoes and I really enjoyed it. Anyway, I'll send you a PM so I don't derail the thread.

 

[Mark Eslick]

I am from Bruceville-Eddy, which is south of Waco. I was actually at a friends house when the tornado that occurred in Moody was coming towards us. It was definitely an experience to look up and see the tornado coming in my direction. This day is what inspired me to storm chase and study Atmospheric Science.

 

[Robert Forry]

I hope you guys don't mind me bumping this old thread with my own link, but I recently finished a blog post on the Jarrell tornado. I don't think there's really anything new, but the story itself is pretty fascinating. Beyond the bizarre meteorological aspects, the fact that so many people did exactly what they were supposed to do and still died was really striking to me. Here's a link:

http://stormstalker.wordpress.com/2012/11/23/jarrell-tornado/

Great write up on this event, Shawn!

 

[Shawn Schuman]

Thank you, Robert!

 

[calvinkaskey]

If I'm not mistaken the tornado wasn't moving more than 20 mph and could have easily been outrun and everyone could have been saved if they got into a vehicle in time.

 

[calvinkaskey]

How is that? I chased the tornado on my avatar and kept up with it and caught it through winding country roads even when stopping to video and check on people. Was on it for like 15 minutes.

 

[Shawn Schuman]

I think it's fair to say that some people could have survived had they been in their cars and simply driven away from the area. It's the "everyone could have been saved if they got in their vehicles" part that doesn't quite check out. Although I will say that if you're ever going to get in your car and try to escape a tornado (which is generally not at all advisable), this is one for which it may not have been the worst plan. As I said earlier, the thing that struck me was the number of people who did exactly what you're taught to do (shelter at home in the innermost room on the lowest level, seek a sturdy, well-built structure if you live in a mobile home, etc.) and still were killed. Just a confluence of terrible circumstances.

 

[Shane Adams]

689 people could've survived 90 years ago if they hadn't been in the tornado's path.

 

[Shawn Schuman]

Those other six people were doomed from the start, then? That's sad.

 

[calvinkaskey]

Well the NWS should take it into account when there is a slow moving ef 5 and no basements in an area that usually doesn't have a lot of violent tornadoes

 

[calvinkaskey]

689 people could've survived 90 years ago if they hadn't been in the tornado's path.

That tornado was moving like 55-73 plus mph

 

[Shawn Schuman]

There's absolutely no way the NWS nor anyone else would or should advise people to get in their cars and flee a tornado. That's just completely irresponsible and dangerous. For one thing, there's no way to tell the intensity of a tornado while it's in progress, so the idea that you'd only make such a recommendation when there's a "slow-moving F5" is flawed from the start. For another, 99% of the time you're much safer sheltering in your home than getting into your car. Even a weak tornado can seriously injure or kill you in your car, while the majority of people survive in their homes even if they're struck by an EF5. Jarrell was an extreme aberration - in fact, it's the only tornado I can think of in which the survival rate in the core of the path was zero - and it would be deeply misguided to base any sort of policy on that.

But even if we ignore all of those things, what's going to happen when you tell people that they can't survive in their homes and they need to flee? Traffic jams, car accidents, and mass panic. The odds are pretty good that that'd be worse than the tornado itself, especially when you end up with potentially hundreds of people (or more?) stuck in their cars on crowded roads with a violent tornado bearing down on them. That's a good recipe for mass fatalities.

 

[calvinkaskey]

Why should the NWS take this into account on a general basis? Like I said, this event was an exception to the rule as far as most tornado events go.

Not as a rule but in these cases if possible esp in rural areas where little chance of congestion
I don't see how this should be suddenly pinned on them. For this case in particular, the survivability rate within the core of the tornado's path was very low, but that rarely applies even in the strongest tornadoes.

 

[Donnie Beasley]

There's absolutely no way the NWS nor anyone else would or should advise people to get in their cars and flee a tornado. That's just completely irresponsible and dangerous. For one thing, there's no way to tell the intensity of a tornado while it's in progress, so the idea that you'd only make such a recommendation when there's a "slow-moving F5" is flawed from the start. For another, 99% of the time you're much safer sheltering in your home than getting into your car. Even a weak tornado can seriously injure or kill you in your car, while the majority of people survive in their homes even if they're struck by an EF5. Jarrell was an extreme aberration - in fact, it's the only tornado I can think of in which the survival rate in the core of the path was zero - and it would be deeply misguided to base any sort of policy on that.

But even if we ignore all of those things, what's going to happen when you tell people that they can't survive in their homes and they need to flee? Traffic jams, car accidents, and mass panic. The odds are pretty good that that'd be worse than the tornado itself, especially when you end up with potentially hundreds of people (or more?) stuck in their cars on crowded roads with a violent tornado bearing down on them. That's a good recipe for mass fatalities.

Unless you are the amazing Calvin Kaskey!

calvinkaskey said: ↑
There are lots of weak short lived tornadoes that aren't recorded. Ne pa had 4 tornadoes in an area of maybe a 6th or less of the area of pa. There were two in my county in N.Y. last year, one wasn't reported. I got 10 full minutes of tornado video in eastern NC last year. I might have gotten another tornado in W.V. but I got lost. I hit several tornado warnings in extreme southern Ohio, I might have seen something but I went into the woods, instead of being in an area of high visibility where I was at the time of the warning. You also don't have to go out west to get 70 mph winds from a t-storm or large hail. I was chasing two years ago and my house got hit with golfball-sized hail and I live in N.Y. lol. Two years ago I also got a video of what looks like an intense f-2 funnel cloud in N.Y.