Vapor loop trends over the last few hours indicate increasing curvature along the limiting streamline/baroclinic zone in the southeast. The 12z NAM indicates strong warm air advection in the 850 and 700 mb levels over South Carolina and western North Carolina, while the broadening baroclinic leaf along the eastern seaboard will further intensify cyclogenesis with latent heat release. The shortwave trof located over western Nebraska/SD will tend to intensify and negatively tilt the 500 mb trough, ejecting the jet max over the MidAtlantic later on today, leading to deepening of the low in the Virginia - New Jersey region late tonight. Liquid equivalents of less than 1cm, while not appearing on the latest ETA progs, will provide more then enough moisture for a heavy snow event. HPC favors lighter precip this evening (expected accumulations of ~1.5 inches in VA) with decreasing amounts over the Cape Cod area the next day. In all, it appears the ETA solution will be the most accurate, as it displaces the surface low further east by f42. I would not count on significant accumulations in the NE, but 4-6 inches could be possible given the presence of increased forcing along the baroclinic zone and associated with the maximum in cyclonic vorticity advection currently passing through Southern Indiana and western Ohio.
12/5-12/6 Nor'Easter/Snowstorm Potential
- Thread starter HAltschule
- Start date
Dan Robinson
I just drove north up to Roanoke this afternoon to try to find some cooler surface temperatures. It is amazing how long that widespread temps held rock-solid right at 32F along the Blue Ridge, even at some higher elevations on the Interstate. Result was no real accumulations along the I-81 corridor south of Roanoke except for a short stretch at Christiansburg almost reaching 2". Anything sticking to roads was basically slush that is melting/has melted fast. Heavier bands of snow were impressive with massive snowflake 'cluster bombs' hitting the windshield, but at 33F it was mostly a futile effort to get the ground covered.
Got some scenic views with the snow on the trees and mountains, but didn't get to see a real 'snowstorm' event this time.
Got some scenic views with the snow on the trees and mountains, but didn't get to see a real 'snowstorm' event this time.
mikegeukes
EF5
Lake Effect Snow Warning for my area: West Michigan
3-5 inches Tonight
3-5 inches Tuesday
1-4 inches Tuesdy Night
Higher amounts in the heavier snow bands
Mike
3-5 inches Tonight
3-5 inches Tuesday
1-4 inches Tuesdy Night
Higher amounts in the heavier snow bands
Mike
David Dildine
EF1
Yes indeed our column is not soaked yet, and the cloud deck is still sorta high - reflectivities near the doppler aren't echoechoechoing back... yet. I actually got a rumble of thunder a few seconds ago. But look at this:
Looks like there might be a TVS developing in near the eastern shore. Lapse rates aren't especially high and diurnal heating hasn't played much of a role since the sun hasn't been out in 3 days, but poss is there and West Virginia (to the west) has tall trees. I'm headed south fur a backyard chase. I'll post some pictures of any snownadoes. Later.
Looks like there might be a TVS developing in near the eastern shore. Lapse rates aren't especially high and diurnal heating hasn't played much of a role since the sun hasn't been out in 3 days, but poss is there and West Virginia (to the west) has tall trees. I'm headed south fur a backyard chase. I'll post some pictures of any snownadoes. Later.
B Ozanne
EF5
NWS just dropped our snow advisory and slashed the snow totals. I'm not even sure its going to snow here at all. The dry air is just eating away at the precip and seems to be winning.
HAltschule
EF5
It became clearer to me on Sunday night that this storm would act like a Jay Feely Field Goal Attempt during a Giants game....WIDE RIGHT.
Of course, a low track 70 miles further east is still closer then Feely's misses the past 2 weeks. I guess we'll have to wait for the next storm.....
Of course, a low track 70 miles further east is still closer then Feely's misses the past 2 weeks. I guess we'll have to wait for the next storm.....
Bill Hark
EF5
I was out driving around shooting video in Richmond, Virginia. (That's my video that was listed as "Richmond") on TWC. Continuous snow most of they day but the ground was too warm for more than about 1/2 inch of slush on the road; about 3-4 inches on the grass.
There is already the possibility of another Mid-Atlantic Storm at the tail end of the week.
Check out the low off the coast of NC om the 96 hr GFS
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs0...hr_sfc_mslp.gif
And the precip on the GFS (1200 UTC Dec 9)
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs0...hr_sfc_prcp.gif
Temp on GFS (1200 UTC Dec 9)
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs0...hr_sfc_temp.gif
Richmond will be along the border of the rain/snow line.
Bill Hark
There is already the possibility of another Mid-Atlantic Storm at the tail end of the week.
Check out the low off the coast of NC om the 96 hr GFS
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs0...hr_sfc_mslp.gif
And the precip on the GFS (1200 UTC Dec 9)
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs0...hr_sfc_prcp.gif
Temp on GFS (1200 UTC Dec 9)
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs0...hr_sfc_temp.gif
Richmond will be along the border of the rain/snow line.
Bill Hark
David Dildine
EF1
well, all that comprehensive analysis really paid off: I bagged a nice elephant truck yesterday. congrats to all that chased here in VA. it was touch and go since visibilities were only a quarter of a mile at times.
lwx released a warning on it but i think they had some electrical issues at the time so you may not have seen it. don't worry though, I saved a copy for no good reason:
the funnel primarily stayed aloft - only briefly touching down as an S0. a few snowswirls were observed but no damage was discovered in today's survey because it was all covered by snow.
lwx released a warning on it but i think they had some electrical issues at the time so you may not have seen it. don't worry though, I saved a copy for no good reason:
the funnel primarily stayed aloft - only briefly touching down as an S0. a few snowswirls were observed but no damage was discovered in today's survey because it was all covered by snow.
B Ozanne
EF5
Man, we got slammed. Up to a half inch of snow on my snow boards! It melted down to a whopping .03" of liquid. That was one incredible bust.
The local NWS was up the air the whole time and on Monday they finally decided to go with a snow advisory. After a raging virga storm for 3+ hours they dropped the advisory. When I woke up I was surprised it snowed at all. Okay, it wasn't that big of a bust...just a real tough forecast.
The local NWS was up the air the whole time and on Monday they finally decided to go with a snow advisory. After a raging virga storm for 3+ hours they dropped the advisory. When I woke up I was surprised it snowed at all. Okay, it wasn't that big of a bust...just a real tough forecast.
David Dildine
EF1
I snowboarded for the first time yesterday actually! So there was enough shiraz "powder" here for that at least. I also tryed the Icy Hot patch for the first time today as well.
B Ozanne
EF5
Excellent. The snow boards I was referring to are actually two 15"x15" pieces of plywood I use to measure snowfall on. Not a snowboard, the device knuckle-draggers use to get down a snow covered mountain.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Looks like NWS Upton had a good call on this one after all. Definitely was a tough forecast though, with the models flipping around...
Bill Hark
EF5
That snownado pic is funny! Better watch out, it may find its way across the internet to some weather conspiracy websites or possibly commonly forwarded images like Mike H.'s supercells.
Bill Hark
David Dildine
EF1
Before I fall asleep, I would just like to point out that the bit about the TVS; it was foolishness. I'm not that impossibly imbecilian.
Marko Korosec
EF4
Sorry...but what the hell is this "warning" and such wording?! I hope I just missed a joke or something. :? I was actually reading the similar wording for hurricane Epsilon few days ago, unusual words
Are such "snownadoes" really possible? Honestly I see it first time now in David's pic.