12/28/06 FCST: OK / TX / AR / LA

Michael O'Keeffe

Well it looks to me like a possible cold core setup is in place for Thursday. A shorwave trough is to lift out of the southwest ahead of a strong storm system. A warm front should also be in place coming out of Texas, as well as a cold front. Dewpoints in the low-mid 50's should be in place over C Oklahoma which is sufficient enough for some decent low-topped supercells with a small tornado potential. 500mb temps of -16C to -20C will be present as well. Hope to see if this all pans out as there is much uncertainty as to where the low will track.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!:D
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This storm is deepening quite rapidly, and there's now the possibility of snow here in the lowlands of western Washington. It does appear that a classic cold core setup will affect the state of OK on Friday, but it's still a few days out yet. Furthermore, it looks like a potential significant severe weather outbreak for the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley region - into the SE U.S. come Saturday / Sunday.
The storm system seems to be progged to take a deeper southern dig than previously thought. If this is so, obviously the SVR threat will shift into Texas on Friday, and into the Gulf states into the weekend.

It almost appears to have the classic, early-Spring event look to it. An associated dryline will likely set up and sweep across the Texas plains tomorrow, with a triple point (of sorts) setting up near Alva, OK. Cold core activity is certainly possible, given the relative shear values. But more significant, and more widespread activity will likely occur along the I-35 corridor from southern OK southward into most of Texas.
I agree with Billy this storm definetley has the early-Spring look to it. This monster is very strong for this time of year of course they all have been. Were on the verge of a Moderate/High Risk event in late December and im stuck having to work this weekend so i'll be watching it from my work desk although i wouldnt be surprised if we see some activity drift up north to where im at in Ks. If this system slides north of where its forcasted to go we might see something Svr wise but im not going to hold my breath.

Today is quite tommorow ill start a Now discussion as soon as things start firing. Oh and mike ease up man the guy is new here and yes he needs to read the rules but he doesnt need his face rubbed in his own crap ok. Learn to teach people not yell at them.