12/09/08 FCST: TX, LA, AR

[Jared Farrer]

Thought I would put this up and see what everyone else thought?! Looks like a small CAPE large shear setup. It looks somewhat good. The NAM has the winds veered at 850 which is troublesome though. I dont like that shape of the low at 850 either! Positively tilted trough as of now however. But that looks like it might change the way the models look! Not a whole lot of upper support but some!

 

[Glenn Dixon]

374 views, I'm the first response. heh

This is something that hasn't been seen in awhile (TOR probabilities)

No active MCD but I see the SPC has CAPEs up around 1000-1200 - not bad for December!

 

[Steve Sherrod]

I NEED SPRING!!!

I saw that forecast and I was thinking about driving down from Wichita. Ratts, I was in dallas over the weekend, I should have checked the computer!!!!

 

[Randy Denzer]

374 views, I'm the first response. heh

This is something that hasn't been seen in awhile (TOR probabilities)

No active MCD but I see the SPC has CAPEs up around 1000-1200 - not bad for December!

I think you were looking at the Hail prob's

 

[Jared Farrer]

He could have been talking about the 5 percent prob. The system has much more cape then I was expecting. The problem is its dark!!! This is a overnight type of deal. With the advecting warm air mass a cap is also present. Good thing is a great deal of dynamic lifting is also advecting in at the same time. Models are breaking out big precip at around 06z at the height of warm air advection. I think those lows splitting into two had a good deal of an effect on the LLJ bringing in such a profile. And with a cap like that I think it will help with keeping things discreet to a degree maybe!?

Look at the 0-3km cape on this model prog?!!!

 

[Jim Saueressig]

The SPC has issued a Moderate Risk for NE LA and WC MS. They are expecting the possibility of strong tornadoes by afternoon. Current MD is expecting a new watch area East of 944 soon.