12/03/2009-12/04/2009 Winter Storm

[Chris Heater]

I wasn't even paying attention to the possibility if everything goes right we could get measurable snow! Saw snow in the forecast later in the week, so I thought i would come here and see what everyone is talking about. Sounds like we MAY get our first measurable snow...but that's left to be seen. I'm going to wait a couple days before I start getting excited about it

 

[Joel Wright]

NAM shifted further to the east and is a bit weaker compared to the 12z. GFS looks largely the same to me. Canadian resembles the GFS. Still think the best chance for accumulating snow lies from St. Louie to the south side of Chi-town/South Bend IN, to around the Bay City/Saginaw MI areas. A bit early for amounts, but due to the lack of cold air I think amounts won't be all that impressive in most areas. Could be some pockets of heavy accumulation if a decent trowel/deformation band can get established over a given area. Right now that location would be impossible to pinpoint.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Still a lot to be resolved with this storm, but there is one thing that looks certain. This will not be the major snowstorm that a sub 996mb low can certainly bring. As always though there are areas of interest. A thin but moderate area of frontogenesis lift occurs from COU through UIN up to LOT into the overnight hours on Wednesday. Meager moisture, rather warm profiles and short-lived lift will limit the potential for snow accumulations. Since this is the first snowfall of the year for most locations, even a dusting means drivers will be all over the place.

 

[Robert Dewey]

NAM continues to be much further west; 12z UKMET and GEM has actually trended that way as well. GFS, on the other hand, continues to trend eastward. Right now, I think a UKMET/ECMWF blend is best.

I'm not too impressed with this setup. Model QPF is dry on the "cold" side, thermal profiles aren't optimal, and the system looks like a quick mover. Barring something unforeseen on the mesoscale level, or big changes in the models, this looks like a 2-3 inch "snowstorm" for the affected area.

 

[Joel Wright]

I'm a bit surprised the storm isn't hugging the incoming colder air a bit more. You'd think it'd track further northwest closer to the mid-level baroclinicy. I wouldn't be all that surprised to see a big shift back to the west on tonight's 00z runs. The models were all fed much better sampling with the early morning runs, and there was no significant shift either way, so I guess there's that to consider too.

As it stands now St. Louis to the south side of Chicago/South Bend IN, to central lower Michigan have the best shot at accumulating snow. I wouldn't not be surprised at all though with a last minute jog to the left of those locations. Tonight's 00z runs will likely have a very good handle on this storm, so what they show is going to be huge.

 

[Joel Wright]

GFS did shift a tad northwest with the storm on the new run. NAM is now the eastern outlier. Since the storm refuses to track closer to the deeper, colder air snow will be limited to a fairly narrow band on the west side of the precip shield.

Since the colder air is a little less prevalent than previously thought, I think the best chance for accumulating snow will run from just west of St. Louis up to Springfield/Peoria IL, to the west side of Chicago, and then into western lower MI. Lack of cold air and apparently less than impressive forcing will yield some rather meager amounts I'm afraid. For most of these areas it'll be the first "sticking" snow, so for that reason I guess it's a bit interesting.

 

[Karla Dorman]

MODS, if not in right section, please relocate. Thank you.

Burleson, Texas: 12/1/09 - 12/02/09

Yesterday afternoon and overnight, a cold, persistant rain. This morning, snow falling! Lasted about two hours. Ground too warm for snow to stick. Toward the end of the 'event' (and believe me, 'round these parts, ANY snow fall is an event), some of the flakes were at least an inch in diameter! Back to rain now.

Possible return to winter precip come Thursday night/Friday. South of here, accumulations may approach one inch.

 

[Joel Wright]

Well that was a nice little exercise to shake the rust off of our winter forecasting skills LOL. Now...on to something a little more "winterlike".

 

[rdale]

Interesting to note that the low's track is amazingly close to what the GEM has been saying pretty much all along...

 

[Chris Carter]

Snow is starting to setup from Green Bay to Peoria, ILL. Even St. Louis is reporting light snow right now.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

This storm was pretty unimpressive. Glad I followed the GEM, had a good handle the whole way. Now my eyes turn to the waves coming ashore next week.

 

[John Farley]

We finally got a few flakes here in Edwardsville. We may get as many as 50 before it ends shortly! But hey, it is the first snow of the year here, and it's December, so there will be more.

 

[Joel Wright]

The light snow tried to make it in here, but the very dry air in the lower layers evaporated it well above the surface. Didn't have to go too far east of here to hit some very light snow.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well, 6z GFS has a 965mb low near Lake Huron at 0z 12/10... Any takers? LOL!

 

[Chris Carter]

Yea, now the lake effect snow machine is beginning to crank up. Not to mention that southern snowstorm is starting to take shape, but that's a different storm.