11L: Hurricane Kyle

[Stuart Robinson]

Invest 93L is now up for a disturbed area of weather @ 1010mb 13.3N 63.5W.

I am not sure if anything will come of this invest but the GFDL matures this into a Storn CAT2 Hurricane (Kyle?) in 126 Hours - The East coast would be the closest threat - but this storm looks to recurve and remain out to sea.

We will have to see what happens with 93L over the next few days...

 

[J Kinkaid]

Looks more like a GOM threat to me than a east coast threat but it shouldn't do much of anything untill after Sunday

 

[Marc Austin]

Looks more like a GOM threat to me than a east coast threat but it shouldn't do much of anything untill after Sunday

Well, models have diverged significantly since the last runs. I hope the GoM isn't under the gun again I think the only area that hasn't been threatened this year is MS to FL West coast. It's much to early to speculate where this thing may go or even if it will become a TC. A very weak and disorganize circulation has appeard on Vis sat imagery over the past few hours. Kyle may be a consideration this time next week.

 

[Jim Leonard]

93L is under a strong shear enviroment for at least a couple of days but if the convection can get strong enough that will cause the upper wind pattern to back off some and weaken. If you go soley by the models, the gfdl kills it in 24 hours where it had it developing into a hurricane in the previous model run. This will probably be a very slow process. During that time the flow pattern will probably take the system toward the southern Gulf if you believe the steering flow thats progged next week.

 

[Thomas Spence]

93L looks in horrible shape at the moment. Almost all the convection is displaced to the east of the center, but a ball of convection has developed close to the center. GFDL and CMC developes it into Kyle and moves Kyle out to sea while the HWRF tries to develope it and has it moving through the Bahama's. The farther west 93L moves the better environment it will move into right now.

 

[Marc Austin]

93L looks in horrible shape at the moment. Almost all the convection is displaced to the east of the center, but a ball of convection has developed close to the center. GFDL and CMC developes it into Kyle and moves Kyle out to sea while the HWRF tries to develope it and has it moving through the Bahama's. The farther west 93L moves the better environment it will move into right now.

It looks much better organized compared to a couple of days ago. While thunderstorms continue to be concentrated to the right of the center, it has shown some improvement in overall appearance. A couple of the models are now developing the system, which is hopeful. Many models are forecasting a northward motion. Even now, it's still impossible to tell where it will end up. Hopefully not the western gulf again!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

93L still contiunes to organise this morning - infact it has now be classed as "code red" as High Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation.

Still too early to tell if anything will come of this - but a RECON flight has been scheduled to investigate 93L later onto day.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

 

[Thomas Spence]

93L is looking a lot better this morning than it has at any other time of it's lifetime. Looking at the satellite thunderstorms have continued to increase around the center of low pressure. There is some circulation on radar but I don't see a closed surface low yet. 93L could be a TD just before landfall in PR or right after it passes PR. No matter what, Puerto Rico will get heavy rains and gusty winds over the next day or two.

 

[Tim Kosier]

Recon reporting 30 to 35 mph winds in squalls to south and east of the center.However the data shows the system does not yet have a well definded surface circulation.

 

[Marc Austin]

Latest IR imagery shows some nice outflow on both the NW and SE sides of the system. I suspect we will see our next tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow. Most models are trending northward right now, but who knows where the system will end up.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

It's due E of Haiti/Dominicam Republic.
It is going up, but has no rotation that one can see
Has it been declared DOA?
Or is it becoming two distinct tropical depressions??
What is the prognosis?

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/satellite_floater1.html

 

[Matt Sellers]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/230232.shtml

Not a depression as of tonight... with the westerly shear and slow movement of the "center" which is over land (Dominican Republic) attm... it will struggle to organize. Recently, convection pulsed up over the eastern Dominican Republic closer to the center, and light west-northwest winds were observed earlier this evening at Santo Domingo, DR.

 

[Thomas Spence]

The center has been drifting southwards this evening and according to the CIMSS satellite position the center has drifted off the southern coastline of Hispaniola. As what has been occurring the past 36-48 hours thunderstorms have been firing and dieing close to the center. Models still agree on a movement towards the north within the weakness in the ridge created by a digging trough over time. If 93L does move into New England, it most likely will be a subtropical or extra-tropical system by that time. 93L may turn into Kyle as a tropical system but the transaction should be quick once it interacts with the trough and the ULL over the Carolina's.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Looks like this thread's title should be changed as Kyle has officially formed in the Atlantic. Current track pretty much draws a straight line north amd has it racing into Nova Scotia, Canada...
Could this be the next Juan?

Currently he looks to be still very sheared with the tropical storm force winds till to the east of the center as well as most of the deeper convection. This will be an interesting storm to watch.