Jeff Snyder
EF5
I'm not really going to regurgitate what others have said, since that's been covered. I will say that one concern I have involves the degree of shear with the degree of instability... I'm not talking so much storms getting ripped apart by the strong flow aloft (and 60-80kts 0-6km shear)... With the strong flow aloft, there will be intense dry air entrainment into the updrafts. Given relatively weak buoyancy (CAPE), storms will really need strong vertical pressure perturbation gradients to enhance their updrafts. These strong gradients will be quite possible given the very strong low-level shear in the risk area today, but the moisture is more shallow than with the tornado outbreak several days ago. 12z OUN and DFW soundings indicate that the moisture is about ~50mb deep, while the SHV indicates a 75mb depth. With SW or SSW 850mb flow, I can't imagine the moisture will deepen much today.
On another note, strong insolation occurring in sw MO as skies remain mostly clear. OK Mesonet showing some SSE surface winds in far ne OK. However, with such strong surface winds, the hodograph isn't as long as it would be if the surface winds were weaker, so the 25-30mph winds aren't necessarily a good thing today. On a local scale, however, the presence of forests and plenty of woods in parts of the target area today may result in relatively weak winds near the sfc in those areas, which would locally lengthen the hodograph and increase near-surface (0-1km) shear further.
EDIT:
18z soundings are in... Moisture depth continues to look like a problem... SGF shows only about ~40mb depth, and SHV with 75mb. The LZK sounding looks better in this regard, but with a thermonuclear cap. SGF has a pretty sign cap as well, but that should erode as strong upward vertical velocities develop over sw MO (associated with DPVA ahead of the vort max and upper-level divergence associated with the left-exit region of the intense jet streak, though that'll affect se KS more than sw MO).
On another note, strong insolation occurring in sw MO as skies remain mostly clear. OK Mesonet showing some SSE surface winds in far ne OK. However, with such strong surface winds, the hodograph isn't as long as it would be if the surface winds were weaker, so the 25-30mph winds aren't necessarily a good thing today. On a local scale, however, the presence of forests and plenty of woods in parts of the target area today may result in relatively weak winds near the sfc in those areas, which would locally lengthen the hodograph and increase near-surface (0-1km) shear further.
EDIT:
18z soundings are in... Moisture depth continues to look like a problem... SGF shows only about ~40mb depth, and SHV with 75mb. The LZK sounding looks better in this regard, but with a thermonuclear cap. SGF has a pretty sign cap as well, but that should erode as strong upward vertical velocities develop over sw MO (associated with DPVA ahead of the vort max and upper-level divergence associated with the left-exit region of the intense jet streak, though that'll affect se KS more than sw MO).
