11/06/08: IL/IA/MO/AR/LA/MS/TX

[David Draun]

Starting a thread for the Day 2 event, as the "sloppy seconds" squall line marches eastward out of the Plains. The surface low will begin to stack and start spinning down late in the period as upper support wanes, but still has a large thermal gradient to feed off of. The main threats should be straight line winds and hail, but I'm hoping for a sup to root on a leftover boundary. I will be heading out to somewhere in west central or southern IL to see what I can catch.

Any thoughts on Thursday??

 

[Adam Lucio]

I was thinking something similar. GFS wants to bring up some moisture as far north as Chicago before the cold front plows through. With near record heating in place before hand this could work to our advantage. I will take a good shelf cloud and some wind/hail to close off the season. Still no CAPE in this area though but it wont take much to at least maintain a line.

With the system slowing down more and more with each run, this scenario grows a little more probable with each day, so it is currently my Plan B if I don't head out Wednesday. Right now it looks like it wants to become cutoff, and will sort of wobble around MN before being ejected east by a kicker wave.

I certainly don't expect tornadoes, but anything is better than nothing.