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11/06/05 FCST: OH/MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes

Severe Weather??



Pretty interesting senario for my neck of the woods....negatively titled mid level trough looks to punch into the Mid MS Valley region and allow for upper level divergence/large scale ascent to spread across the TN/OH Valley regions by mid day Sunday. HP off of the SE coast coupled with a deepening low pressure system will drag in tropical moisture from the Gulf along with temperatures nearing 80° near the coast coupled with TD's ranging from 65-70°. This should yeild for SBCAPE values near 2500j/kg. If this pattern pans with a backed low level flow, some supercellular activity could prevail. This could be the first outbreak of our "Secondary Tornado Season".
I really like Monday's GFS solution, basically advertising a potentially significant severe weather outbreak over eastern Missouri/Iowa/Illinois. But the problem is the GFS is ejecting this system way too fast. The European solution is probably the slowest but more on target, while the Canadian is in-between the two. I'd expect the GFS to show this system ejecting into the Mid Mississippi Valley slower. Once the timing isn't such an issue, we'll see what kind of potential setup we've really got. Right now it seems more of a fantasy than anything else (cross your fingers...)
Perhaps the title of this thread should include the Great Lakes region as well?

Things are really lookin good for a late season squall line to rip through portions of the MS Valley / Great Lakes, according to the GFS...

Wind fields are screaming, height falls are incredible, and SFC based stability is low - on the order of -2C or so. Even with the bad timing of the system (06Z to 12Z for the Great Lakes), the strong forcing and wind fields would create a favorable environment for damaging winds. In fact, damaging winds could persist even AFTER the front moves through in the CAA.

Okay, that's all based on the GFS. The NAM is weaker, though trending towards the GFS. The 00Z UKMET, 00Z ECMWF, and now the 12Z Regional GEM shows a pretty intense system wrapping up... Looks like the NAM is the odd model our - for now.