• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

2019-04-14 EVENT: IL/KY/TN/OH/AL/GA

Jesse Risley

Staff member
Joined
Apr 12, 2006
Messages
2,273
Location
Macomb, IL
It's still 72 hours out, but since it's quasi-local for me, I'll be keeping an eye on how Saturday's system progresses into Sunday as the upper-level energy gyrates out of the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi valley. While I believe the NAM is again overdoing moisture, particularly with its northward extent, and a lot rides on how Saturday's convection plays out coupled with the evolution of ongoing convection in the warm sector coterminous with large scale forcing for ascent, if today's 12z NAM continues with its current prognostication, there is a more formidable, classic spring threat across the northern extent of the risk area into the western and central OH Valley region.

Given the potency of mid-level energy approaching the region, and the possibility of a more compact surface cyclone with better directional shear, if more formidable instability can materialize in the synoptically favorable axis south and east of the main surface low, a more substantial risk for discrete supercells could conditionally materialize. Of note is that the 12z/11 NAM run is still somewhat of an outlier here, as the ECMWF is slightly more progressive with a less nebulous SVR threat across the northern extent of the warm sector. The GFS is the most progressive and least optimistic, and continues that trend with the 18z run, showing a more diffuse surface pressure amalgamation and a fairly scantily clad warm sector in the aforesaid region. All models seem to agree with surface frontal forcing interacting with a more unstable airmass across the Gulf-Atlantic Coastal Plain and southern Piedmont region, with shear vectors more parallel to the front, generally producing a more substantial threat from linear convection there. While the NAM is advertising better LIs, favorable directional shear, and more magnanimous surface instability south of I-64 and east of I-57, across large swaths of the western OH River valley, caveats include more anemic, less latitudinous mid-level lapse rates and some rather notable VBV profiles on the wider 6 km picture, despite favorable 0-1 km shear vectors.

Nevertheless, something to keep an eye on as the system evolves over the next 72 hours.
 
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