11/05/05 NOW: Mid Mississippi Valley

It's started along the warm front....time to watch for rotators to develop in the warm sector as the cap erodes.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA
* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 303 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAND MOUND...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTH OF DAVENPORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
 
Looks like the cap is giving way. Rapid development of storms on CF and development near Low and WF now occuring. SVR warning out for storm near Stockton which showed quite impressive strengthning in 4 minutes.
 
Wind profiles show mid/upper level jet streaks about to enter the WW area ahead of the powerful mid level shortwave/vort axis. Early evening VIS sat shows TCU developing over Central MO right along a strengthening LLJ axis. With stronger deep layer shear developing, initiation should be soon as dusk approaches. The tornadic threat will likely develop at the onset in the next hour or two. Good luck Nick.
 
Stuff popping on the sfc trough in w MO may stay ahead of the cold front for a while. I'd hope to be near Columbia right now.
 
Ewww fast linear hell down there. I'd hope to be near sfc low around Columbia or much further sw on any possible tail-end-charlie cell.
 
While the cells have quickly gone linear farther southwest near Stockton, two cells farther northeast near the surface low are remaining more isolated at the moment, the one southeast of Sedalia taking on the "flying eagle" appearance in the last two frames of the radar loop and the other west of Columbia looking fairly robust as well. These two could cause trouble shortly. Columbia area appears to be the place to be if any tornadic action is to be found.
 
Yes, best low-level helicity remains just out ahead. Storm motion ~30mph and topping out around 40,000 ft so far. Still signs of yet more initiation out in front, and maybe we will see a right-turner over the next hr. or so. Tail-end also to keep an eye on, as initial motion vectors appear to be diverging to the right a little.

What a gutsy call, Nick! Good luck!
 
The orignal Columbia storm seems to be splitting. To bad that a storm is about to merge and contanimating its inflow.
 
Lots of lightning now to the west/NW of Quincy. The wind has been dead calm here all day, and without my A/C on, my inside thermo shows 77 degrees! Feels quite sticky for a November day...
 
Major tornado damage reported through Western and Central Kentucky and Southern Indiana. Evansville, Indiana and Henderson, Kentucky area particularly hard hit with fatalities reported. Intense dynamics must have compensated for low instability.
 
Originally posted by Michael Auker
Major tornado damage reported through Western and Central Kentucky and Southern Indiana. Evansville, Indiana and Henderson, Kentucky area particularly hard hit with fatalities reported. Intense dynamics must have compensated for low instability.

This is sure. I'm watching mesoscale analysis maps and in those zones I'm seeing 0-3 SRH up to 550 m2/s2 plus 0-1 km SRH up to 450-500m2/s2 with Td between 55 and 60 F.
Besides I see an impressive deep layer shear with low LFC.

The last tornado warning for Brown County is just expired 10 minutes ago, but it didn't show an impressive rotation. This cell is died just now.

Now I'm keeping an eye on the cell north of Lexingtong: it is isolated and it seems it's taking force.
 
Paul Sirvatka on MSNBC

Did anyone else hear the interview they played on MSNBC??

Paul mentioned something about anticipating more "late night tornadoes" in the winter months. Just curious as to what this is based on...
 
Yep, Sara, heard it, too. Would be the pretty much typical pattern of late night severe weather that occurs in the winter, primarily in the south. Not sure of the mechanism involved, but I think it has something to do with how the jet tends to strengthen overnight.
Angie
 
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