10/6/06 FCST: AZ/UT/NV

Ingredients are coming together for one of our fall-change-of-season severe events in the southwest. Enough moisture and shear should be available for a few mini-supercells and a possible tornado or two. Any storms will likely train and be zipping north-northeast at 40 mph or so. Cold-air funnels are a possibility up toward Las Vegas, the Arizona strip, and southwest Utah.

Hard to chase, but watch the surface obs for the best backed winds and the radar for microscale convergence lines.
 
Waiting to head out the door, but...

Surface low and upper energy just have not synched up, and low-level conditions are marginal and getting mixed. SPC just took away the MD they had posted.

Forecast: bustola
 
Yeah, it was an interesting waiting game this morning, but now there is very little overlay of significant parameters. Dynamics to the north, CAPE to the south, and a nice cap over PHX as usual. So no central AZ chasing for me today.

I like the Winslow-Holbrook area for a brief tornado, not only because of some locally decent EHI value, but also because that area is relatively flat and historically has a TOR or two each year that someone is able to spot. Also the higher altitude helps out surface Tds.
 
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