10/3/06 NOW: MN/WI/IL/IA/MI

[Michael O'Keeffe]

A very strong tornado-warned supercell right along I94 in W Wisconsin showing 70dbz on radar. Could be the storm of the day? It still is in unfavorable chase territory and is blasting east at 55MPH.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Well I'm not too sure about tornadic potential right now. Surely it looks capable of producing a tornado and I believe the TOR is definately warranted. However it is in an environment where it is probably a bit elevated as SBCAPE values at its current location are likely AOB 500 j/kg. Therefore, wouldn't expect tremendous vertical parcel acceleration if it was emanating from a position near the surface. However, there must be at least a moderate amount of MUCAPE available that it is tapping because it now has 75-80 dbZ returns spiking up over 13000' now. Both MPX and ARX are sampling this thing pretty high up on the 0.5 beam angle...so it appears to have a decent mid level meso but given the low level environment I don't know if it will be able to spin up a tornado right now. If it keeps deviating to the right, the parcel source layer should lower...it will be interesting to see what happens. Very dangerous hailstorm though to be sure.

AJL

 

[Alex Lamers]

757 pm: looks like this thing is trying to get its act together. I like the 0.5 degree reflectivity presentation a lot more now. Rotation appears to be tightening up a bit too on the lowest 2 cuts on ARX SRM. We might see this thing spin up a tornado soon. Still an impressive hail spike.

Edit: funnel clouds reported in Dunn Co. with this storm

AJL

 

[rdale]

Impressive amounts of elevated CAPE for an early October morning! Seeing some rotation in cells north of the front in WI, with the best storm in NE Iowa where AE has been running about 3-4" MEHS for a while now, broad rotation, and a VERY impressive hail spike (nearly 30 miles out from the core at 1.3*, can be seen all the way up to the 4.0* slice at 23000ft)

http://skywatch.org/tbss.png

 

[Danny Neal]

Tornado warning for columbia and sauk counties for radar indicated tor over baraboo moving southeast at 85 MPH!!!! if this was only 12 hours ago im sure it would have made alot of people happy

 

[rdale]

No reason to think there is a tornado there... Rotation is minimal and it's WELL into the cold air (low-50's, 75 miles north of the front) and I don't know where 85mph came from, the storm is moving at 60mph.

 

[Danny Neal]

the original warning was southeast at 85 and then the severe weather statement put it 9 se of baraboo moving east at 70 and then finally the tor was dropped and replaced as a severe thunderstorm warning moving to the east southeast at 55, i dont make the warnings, i just relay them

 

[rdale]

I'm aware the N in NWS does not mean Neal ;> Just commenting that if there was any chance of a tornado being in that storm, we needed to rewrite some rules of meteorology...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

4) Chase Forecasts forum. In the Chase Forecasts forum, we allow two types of messages, as follows.
* FCST is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that has not occurred yet
* NOW is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that is occurring right now.

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* REPORTS is for your firsthand chase report, along with photos and graphics.
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Since the event is over, no further discussion is allowed in this thread. If you want to discuss it, start a DISC thread in the appropriate forum.