10/28/09 FCST: OK/TX

[Chance Coldiron]

Models continue to show rapid moisture return to NW TX and W OK by wednesday evening, with strong deep layer shear present and backing low to mid level winds could pose a small tornado threat. Storms should fire, possibly supercells, at or a short time after sunset and if cells can remain discrete then there is a good opportunity of a late season night time chase. At the very least storms will produce large hail and damaging winds.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

slightly surprise there hasnt been much activity on here with this event but its October, it is at night, and the tornado threat is minimal.

As for a forecast, moisture return is underway, 60-65 dewpoints are already in place, expect initiation around 03Z with a storms evolving in a similar manner as they did Sunday night across N TX, that being discrete cells initially becoming semi-discrete to a QLCS 3-4 hrs after initiation. Modest lapse rates should mitigate a large hail threat but the more discrete storms/more robust updrafts intially will have larger hail obviously. Shear will be on the high to extreme end so any storm that is discrete will fly like a jet.

For those that are housebound...*STOMP STOMP* then this is at least worth going out and spotting and getting a good show in.