Jeff Snyder
EF5
Too... much... discussion... ... Can't... Keep... Up... ;-)
Still a difficult forecast. Surface pressures are finally dropping in response to diurnal heating and, more importantly, the approach of the intense upper low. I'd rather see the max pressure falls farther north and west (Mesonet indicates max pressure falls in se OK)., but oh well. Earlier this morning, a wind shift made it's way all the way to and east of I35, veering winds to the SW and dropping dewpoints into the low-mid 50s. Ugh.
CAPE was a limited factor north of I40 already, and Tds in the 58-60F range certainly don't help the cause. Farther south, moisture should be deeper and is of higher magnitude, but the 18z FWD sounding has a poor and "confused" hodograph, with negative 0-1km SRH indicating a propensity to support anticyclonic, left-moving supercells. I hate s-shaped hodographs (backing over veering or vice versa), since my experience tells me that it doesn't tend to favor either cyclonic or anticyclonic mesos, so you end up with transient, weak-moderate circulations.
All that said, my eyes are still to the north. CAPE will no doubt be more favorable for sustained supercells near the Red River, but (a) faster storm motions, (b) worse terrain, and (c) a bad road newtork discourage me from taking on that challenge -- I've chased SE of Ada enough in the past couple of years. If the winds in nc OK can be enough and for a long enough time, the higher moisture near and S of I40 may be able to advect to near the warm front. I don't really know what to expect, but I agree with dropping the 10% T prob.
Still a difficult forecast. Surface pressures are finally dropping in response to diurnal heating and, more importantly, the approach of the intense upper low. I'd rather see the max pressure falls farther north and west (Mesonet indicates max pressure falls in se OK)., but oh well. Earlier this morning, a wind shift made it's way all the way to and east of I35, veering winds to the SW and dropping dewpoints into the low-mid 50s. Ugh.
CAPE was a limited factor north of I40 already, and Tds in the 58-60F range certainly don't help the cause. Farther south, moisture should be deeper and is of higher magnitude, but the 18z FWD sounding has a poor and "confused" hodograph, with negative 0-1km SRH indicating a propensity to support anticyclonic, left-moving supercells. I hate s-shaped hodographs (backing over veering or vice versa), since my experience tells me that it doesn't tend to favor either cyclonic or anticyclonic mesos, so you end up with transient, weak-moderate circulations.
All that said, my eyes are still to the north. CAPE will no doubt be more favorable for sustained supercells near the Red River, but (a) faster storm motions, (b) worse terrain, and (c) a bad road newtork discourage me from taking on that challenge -- I've chased SE of Ada enough in the past couple of years. If the winds in nc OK can be enough and for a long enough time, the higher moisture near and S of I40 may be able to advect to near the warm front. I don't really know what to expect, but I agree with dropping the 10% T prob.
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