10/23/10 FCST: IA/NE/MO/KS/OK/TX

[Mark Sefried]

Surprised no one has posted yet as this may be one of the last half way decent chase days this year on a weekend. This mornings RUC is showing some half way decent potential for a few supercells and maybe a tornado or two for areas especially in NW Missouri and SW Iowa. 2000 cape, li's to around -6, SRH to near 300 m/s, ample clearing and a warm front moving northward this general area needs to be watched closely especially in SW Iowa. I have plans today and can't chase otherwise I would be out for sure.

 

[Kevin Walters]

Later today looks interesting over the western corn belt. Retreating warm front with clearing already taking place in some areas. Directional wind shear looks pretty darn good over Western into central Iowa. Decent moisture is advecting into the area as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado or two with any storm moving along/crossing warm front. I am in Iowa City to watch Iowa play Wisconsin. There is a chance of severe storms in the Iowa City area later in the afternoon or evening.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Bill Oosterbaan and I are on this one. SRRR shows 2,000 CAPE overspreading a good amount of IA, more than initially indicated on NAM. Our initial plan was to head a little way south of Des Moines, which has consistenly shown the best sounding in the region; but with clearing and moisture both progressing rapidly northward, I'm thinking that we'll be heading northwest of DM instead and playing the warm front.

UPDATE: Scrap that. Meso graphics show best instability building in from northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri. We'll drop south down I-35, work the CAPE, and hope for some fun.