1/7/08 DISC: WI / IL / MO / AR

[Sam Sagnella]

The Tulsa WFO has issued a PNS indicating that up to ten tornadoes may have occurred within their CWA during last night's severe weather event.

AT THIS TIME THERE ARE 10 POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN LOCATIONS OR
SHORT TRACKS. IT APPEARS THE TORNADOES WILL BE RATED NO MORE THAN
EF-1...WITH MOST LIKELY RATED EF-0. ALL TOUCHDOWNS APPEARED BRIEF
WITH DAMAGE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO TREES.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTSA/0801082320.nous44.html

EDIT: and here are the complete survey results for the Boone/McHenry Co's IL tornado; it turns out that it was the tornado that was responsible for derailing that train carrying hazardous materials in the Lawrence area.

...BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTY TORNADO...

A TORNADO STRUCK NORTHERN BOONE AND NORTHWEST MCHENRY COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED
THE DAMAGE TODAY. THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF3 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA
SCALE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 136 TO 165 MPH. THE TORNADO HAD A PATH
LENGTH OF 13.2 MILES AND A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF AROUND 100 YARDS. THE
TORNADO STARTED AT 330 PM ABOUT 1.2 MILES NORTH OF POPLAR GROVE IN
BOONE COUNTY AND ENDED AT 348 PM ABOUT 3.2 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
HARVARD IN MCHENRY COUNTY. THERE WERE FOUR INJURIES IN BOONE COUNTY
AND ONE IN MCHENRY COUNTY.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLOT/0801082203.nous43.html

 

[Doug Lee]

Just wondering

My team intercepted the initial line of storms that formed in Missouri and trained through the Columbia area. Interestingly, this line was composed of mirror-image storms--i.e. each southern cell had a northern counterpart. I'm aware of cell mirroring as an isolated phenomenon, but I've never thought of it occurring in this fashion. Did anyone else notice it? I know it's common enough for storms to train--in fact, yesterday that seemed to be their overall modus operandi in Oklahoma and Missouri--but this "mirror cell train" struck me as unusual.

Several mesoscale updates issued by the Tulsa office mentioned a "instability axis." I wonder if this axis served as a "mirror line," where the storm features are "reflected" on either side of the line.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

Thought this was interesting....I don't recall them mentioning this long of a track last night.

 

[Danny Neal]

That is the first EF3 tornado in the Chicago metro since the Lemont tornado of 3/27/91. That's 17 years.

While I disagree with "Chicago Metro" (I feel Lake, Dupage, Cook, Will are metro area) but too each his own. The tornado hit 74 miles away from downtown so we had some cushion there. Rockford dodged a bullet on this one as it traversed the city right before dropping the tornadoes. Strength-wise this ranks up there with Utica in 04, but at least this time the casualties were minor.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I gotta disagree with the Chicago metro comment. If a tornado hit 74 miles away from my town of Champaign-Urbana I wouldn't say the tornado hit my town.

It hit the northern suburbs yeah, but I don't think it was anywhere near a metro hit.

Not to take away from the severity of the tornado or anything, just wanted to add my part in the whole "first in 17 years" situation. I think we're still waiting on that day to come.

 

[Tony Lyza]

By "Chicago metro," I'm using the definition LOT used for its significant tornadoes study.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=SigChiTorn

 

[Michael Towers]

Interesting how it all can change so unexpectedly over such a broad area in such a short time span. The SPC forecast basically missed what would become a significant outbreak less than 24 hours before it happened:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day1otlk_20080107_0100.html


Only 5 hours before the IL/WI outbreak that area was not considered Slight Risk:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day1otlk_20080107_1630.html

Either way - it is still evident to me that our tornado/supercell forecasting skills are still at the mercy of the atmosphere - we are only good at it if mother nature plays by the rules. If something unexpected happens or something outside of our mean expectations - this can quite frequently make all the difference between bust and outbreak.
KL

Very well said!

 

[Jeff Smith]

Hmmm... I thought that they has a slight risk up from day 3 up until the event.....maybe I'm wrong....

 

[Jarrod Cook]

Michael was just pointing out that the N. IL and S. WI areas were not included in the slight risk area at first. It wasn't until later day 1 outlooks (2000Z) that they added those areas.

 

[Michael Towers]

Thanks Jarrod, that was my second observation. Living less than 10 miles from Poplar Grove made that even more relevant to me personally.

You're correct Jeff, they had it Slight on both days 3 & 2. But then the 0100 SWODY1 downgraded the risk from Slight to No Organized Severe.

 

[afischer]

The 01Z Day 1 Outlook, though it is a new Zulu day, is still only valid til 12Z (like the 20Z outlook that came before it). The "new" 12Z Day 1 Outlook (valid 12Z Jan 7 - 12Z Jan 8 for this event) is issued around 06Z.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

I checked the outlook for current day one that day which would have been about noon and the slight risk was only up to the western/NW IL area..so I wasnt too concerned up here..however at work I saw they issued a Tornado Watch for our area via the WX channel. At first I thought it referring to the one in MO and extreme west IL maybe but then I saw it up here to the border area which still didnt include SE WI.
The Tornado Warning was issued when radar showed strong rotation SW of Machesney Park and the Tornado didnt drop down until into Boone county. At the speed it was traveling it didnt give people much time thats for sure. But the warning couldn't have been better timed.
So I guess the Outlkook was a little weak in this area however the most widespread activity by far was where it was initially located into Central IL and then moved into IN. Nevertheless a E-3 Tornado hit the area. With the outlook being south and the time of year I wasnt concerned. Talk about being surprised ! Even if I would have been off work the closest I would have came would have been in Loves park or M.P. At the speed it was moving there was no way I could have caught the Twister anyway in Boone co.
The Hardest part now after this is now is realizing It still only January but that did help break the blues a little

 

[Michael Towers]

The 01Z Day 1 Outlook, though it is a new Zulu day, is still only valid til 12Z (like the 20Z outlook that came before it). The "new" 12Z Day 1 Outlook (valid 12Z Jan 7 - 12Z Jan 8 for this event) is issued around 06Z.

Thanks, I stand corrected. It helps to look at those “validâ€￾ parameters, lol. While they didn’t extend the risk to IL/WI until 2000z, I was wrong in my first observation. They didn’t “basically missâ€￾ the outbreak as reflected in the 0600.

Jim, I live in Machesney Park, if I wasn't working myself at the time I'd have probably given it a go. I've never chased local, always trips to The Plains. How unlikely that my first local chase would have been in January!

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Yeah the last outlook I saw was the one right before noon... I work out by the Airport so everything went well west and Norh of us there..Too bad it didnt happen a day earlier on Sunday but thats the way it goes..if I see a significant outbreak forecasted I try and schedule time off..but it always doesnt workout last summer most stuff happened around here after Dark esp. in August. I certiainly didnt expect it in January ! All my chases have been in N.IL and S. WI.

The NWS site has some new shots up now too..wow

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=20080107tor

www.rrstar.com has some good stuff too and about the Belvidere 1967 Twister in a link..

 

[Paul Austin]

did anyone notice the tornado-cane structure this passed just south of springfield?

This was a "discrete" cell as it passed west of Siloam Springs, and chased it north, then viewed a Large but weak tornado east of Decatur.

Yeah, I saw the same thing. It looked almost like it had feeder bands spiraling around it. It's a little easier to see with animation. This was from Wunderground.com:

At 2042 CST
lower left in this loop

at 2056 CST
center in this loop

Someone else may have this loop in higher res GRLX or similar output? I was just watching online at the time.