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1/7/08 DISC: WI / IL / MO / AR

Joined
Sep 28, 2005
Messages
34
I live in Bentonville, AR and my house was right in the path of one of the tornadoes from the March 2006 Missouri/Arkansas/Oklahoma outbreak (killer T's near Sedalia and Columbia, MO in that one, Bentonville got hit hard as well).

There were at least three reports by trained spotters (according to local news) of tornadoes in this area last night including one in the SW Bentonville limits, but no damage reports. I saw what appeared to be a wall cloud/developing funnel north of my house but could not determine the extent of rotation. Our county was tornado warned at least five times last night before I went to bed, and the two worst storms (in terms of wind and rain) hit our house after I went to bed at 11:00 pm. First time I can ever remember tornadoes interrupting the national championship football game. To further demonstrate how prolonged this event was, around 10:00 the meteorologist at the local NBC affiliate (KNWA-TV's Dan Skoff, who seems like a genuinely caring man) said with a sigh, "OK, this looks like it's winding down, there's only two tornado warnings right now."

I know there are some NW Arkansas storm chasers on this forum so maybe you all can talk me out of my concerns.

NW Arkansas, including Benton County, has seen tremendous growth this decade. There may be more people in this metro area than in the Springfield one, and studies show there may be 1 million people here before the midpoint of this century.

And they're building "slab home" after "slab home" after "slab home" here with NO basements, and I don't see evidence of very many backyard underground shelters being built. Compared to nearby Springfield (where I grew up) I think we'd be astonished how many homes without shelter below ground level there now are here. And, historically, this county is right on the track for many tornadic storms moving from Oklahoma into southwest Missouri.

Someday (and I pray to God I'm wrong) I fear we're going to see an incredibly tragic disaster here when an F3 or greater strikes the Bentonville/Rogers area on a spring afternoon...
 
Just wanted to say "INCREDIBLE JOB" to the NWS Offices and SPC on this event. It was a difficult forecasting day, cases could be made for a moderate risk, but overall most of the areas that were hit hard had some advance notice - either by SPC or local offices. I think everyone on the forum would say that the Springfield, NWS Office deserves a lot of credit for being on top of what would be described as a nightmare situation last night. The Northern IL and Southern WI situation had excellent warnings as well.

Excellent work to all involved.
 
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I know I underestimated the importance of the effect of relatively minor shortwaves' interactions, riding along parallel to the frontal boundary. The standard metrics for tornado production were pretty pathetic, especially in WI and IL. IMO, FWIW.
 
Here are a few direct links to photos of the northern Illinois tornado/damage near Harvard if anyone is interested, courtesy weatherplus.com.

14997456_320X240.jpg


14997450_320X240.jpg

That is SNOW.

http://wmaq.weatherplus.com/2008/0107/14997454_320X240.jpg

http://wmaq.weatherplus.com/2008/0107/14997452_320X240.jpg
 
Yes it does appear that that shortwave may have made the difference between this being yet another ho-hum January system with no CAPE, to a deadly tornado outbreak from WI to AR. The later runs at least of the RUC certainly picked up on the shortwave nicely - what I don't recall is whether or not any of the other, longer-range models had picked up on it OR for how long the RUC was hinting at it. Either way - it is still evident to me that our tornado/supercell forecasting skills are still at the mercy of the atmosphere - we are only good at it if mother nature plays by the rules. If something unexpected happens or something outside of our mean expectations - this can quite frequently make all the difference between bust and outbreak.

Given the dynamics, I am also wondering whether a Moderate and higher tornado probabilities would have served the public better on the LATER Day 1 outlooks, but of course my forecasting skills are paltry compared to the collective at SPC so that is really a moot point.

KL
 
did anyone notice the tornado-cane structure this passed just south of springfield?

6opyuds.png


This was a "discrete" cell as it passed west of Siloam Springs, and chased it north, then viewed a Large but weak tornado east of Decatur.
 
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My team intercepted the initial line of storms that formed in Missouri and trained through the Columbia area. Interestingly, this line was composed of mirror-image storms--i.e. each southern cell had a northern counterpart. I'm aware of cell mirroring as an isolated phenomenon, but I've never thought of it occurring in this fashion. Did anyone else notice it? I know it's common enough for storms to train--in fact, yesterday that seemed to be their overall modus operandi in Oklahoma and Missouri--but this "mirror cell train" struck me as unusual.
 
Wow. The Wheatland, WI tornado has been rated E-F3, with estimated winds in the 140-150mph range. Path length is 10.8 miles, with a width of 200 yds.
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMKX/0801081929.nous43.html

The tornado that affected Boone County, IL apparently moved into McHenry County, and was also rated E-F3. Five injuries, path length ~15mi; majority of damage E-F1/E-F2.
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLOT/0801082022.nwus53.html

poplargrovebp6.png

StormTrack Forum: 1/7/08 NOW: OK, KS, AR, TX, MO, IL, WI (page 2)

EDIT: Confirmed tornado in association with this same supercell as it raced across Kenosha County just north of Kenosha. Four injuries; Rating E-F1.
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMKX/0801082122.nous43.html
 
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Interesting to look on the NWS SGF the preliminary tornado tracks at the more than 50+ mile continuous track from Monett to Rolla...it also appears that 3 seperate tornadoes impacted the downtown SGF area. The damage in Northern IL and Southern WI from that lone supercell is equally significant. Interesting to note that this was only the second ever confirmed January tornado in LOT warning area (the other being Jan 25, 1950 on a day where Chicago set its all time record high in JAN)
 
Boone County, IL tornado rated EF-3 per preliminary report below:


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
220 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM TORNADO 1 N POPLAR GROVE 42.38N 88.82W
01/07/2008 BOONE IL NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 5 INJ *** PRELIMINARY EF-SCALE RATING FROM SURVEY
TEAM OF EF3. MOST DAMAGE EF1 TO LOW EF2. CONTINUOUS PATH
LENGTH FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR GROVE TO NORTHEAST OF
HARVARD IN MCHENRY COUNTY. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATED PATH
LENGTH 15 MILES.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Also, kudos to SGF for the hard work they did last night. They issued 62 tornado warnings!!

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0062.080108T1013Z-080108T1100Z/[/FONT]

That is just insane.
 
Boone County, IL tornado rated EF-3 per preliminary report below:


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
220 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM TORNADO 1 N POPLAR GROVE 42.38N 88.82W
01/07/2008 BOONE IL NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 5 INJ *** PRELIMINARY EF-SCALE RATING FROM SURVEY
TEAM OF EF3. MOST DAMAGE EF1 TO LOW EF2. CONTINUOUS PATH
LENGTH FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR GROVE TO NORTHEAST OF
HARVARD IN MCHENRY COUNTY. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATED PATH
LENGTH 15 MILES.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Also, kudos to SGF for the hard work they did last night. They issued 62 tornado warnings!!

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0062.080108T1013Z-080108T1100Z/[/FONT]

That is just insane.
That is the first EF3 tornado in the Chicago metro since the Lemont tornado of 3/27/91. That's 17 years.
 
Here's a pretty comprehensive list of media reports/articles related to yesterday's tornado outbreak; listed from north to south.

WISCONSIN
WISN-TV: "Cleanup, Investigation Begin Following January Tornadoes"
--------- "viewer submitted images" *1, 6, 9, 20, 30-35*
WTMJ-TV: "Raw Video: Parts Of Wheatland Flattened By Twister"
Kenosha News: "Latest on Aftermath of Tornadoes"
-------------- "Tornadoes Rip Apart Wheatland, Kenosha Homes"
-------------- "Staff and Viewer Images"

ILLINOIS
WREX-TV: "[SIZE=-1]Boone County Looks to Rebuild After Rare January Tornado"[/SIZE]
---------[SIZE=-1] "Lawrence Residents Allowed Back to Homes After Train Derailment[/SIZE] "
--------- "Edward's Apple Orchard Destroyed in Tornado"
Rockford Register Star: "Church aids orchard owners"
--------------------- "Readers' Tornado Photos" **
--------------------- Video: "Register Staffers Seek Shelter From Tornado"
WLS(ABC)-TV: "Wild Weather Rips through Illinois, Wisconsin"
------------- story media number six is a video of the tornado

WMAQ(NBC)-TV: "Cleanup Under Way After Rare Tornadoes"
--------------- "viewer submitted images"
--------------- Home Video: "Tornado near Spring Grove"
--------------- Home Video: "Video Shows Rare Funnel Cloud"

MISSOURI
Springfield News-Leader: "35 tornadoes sweep through Ozarks; 2 die"
KSPR-TV: "String of Tornadoes Rip Through Ozarks, Kill 2"
--------- Raw Video: "Stick Stuck in Concrete"
--------- numerous other video clips posted at above site
KOLR-TV: "98 Weather Warnings Issued in Ozarks Storm System"
--------- "Tuesday AM - Greene County Emergency Management Update"
--------- Aerial Video: "Aerial Video of Damage in Strafford, MO"
--------- Aerial Video: "Aerial Video of Damage in Republic, MO"
KY3 News: "Storm recovery updates and resources from various agencies"
---------- Raw Video: "tornado south of Monett"
---------- Raw Video: "Raw video of tornado south of Monett"

NWS Sites:
WFOMKX
WFOLOT
WFOLSX
WFOSGF

Sigh.
 
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