1/31/08-2/1/08 Winter Storm: OK/KS/MO/IL/IN/OH/MI

[Brandon Sullivan]

Surprised no one has started a thread about this yet.

Long story short, a low will eject East Northeast into the Ohio Valley.. Accumulations up to 8-10 inches are likely Northwest of the low. Models are shaky with the path of the system. The WRF is varying the path and is pretty inconsistent..

It will be worth watching to see if Convection on the Deep south can get going, which could effectively limit the moisture feed somewhat, which could somewhat cut the snow totals by a few inches..

 

[Dan Robinson]

Classic Appalachian 'cold air dam' ice storm shaping up with this also - with high QPF painted over subfreezing temps through midday Friday for the eastern mountains and the Shenandoah Valley/Blue Ridge.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Winter storm warning is out for us calling for 5-8 inches of snow with fairly gusty winds as well. Maybe interesting to say the least, but I'd rather see tornadoes.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Might need to add KS and OK to the discussion. Winter Storm Warning is in effect for a large portion of NE OK and much of eastern KS. The forecast is calling for 5-8 inches in portions of SE KS and extreme NE OK with lower amounts south towards Tulsa around 2-4 inches. The track of the 850mb disturbance should be in western OK by 12z tomorrow and NE OK by 18z. It looks like between noon and evening tomorrow should be the time frame for the best accumulating snow for NE OK and SE KS. I have not looked at points east of here but I am sure it will be more of the same of what were are going to recieve here.

 

[Chris Vagasky]

Looking at the 0z NAM for DTX on Bufkit right now...

Something doesn't seem quite right.

Showing snowfall rates of >2 inches per hour for several (5) hours and total snowfall of nearly 2 feet!

I'm a little shaky about that run's output. I'd still put SE Michigan in a zone of about 8-10 inches of snow.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

Winter Storm Watch for most counties in Chicago county warning area. Expecting 1 to 4 inches in the northwestern counties, 4 to 7 inches along Lake Michigan and then south between Joliet and Kankakee, down to La Salle. Then 6 to 9 inches south of Kankakee.

I would love if this storm tracked maybe 50 miles north of what it is now on the models. More snow for Chicago area and more people moaning about how the weather sucks and how cold it is outside.

 

[Andrew Francis]

Not really sure what is going on here in OK so far... Temps falling extremely slow its now (1:00am) and the temperature is 38F. Wind is picking up, and we had a wave of light rain come through earlier.

This is weird the way this system is coming out, it has a huge dry pocket in itself over nearly all of Oklahoma... And it appears the precipitation is decipating nearly everywhere with it.

Not really sure what is going on with this? Forecast is saying from 6am - 6pm in Oklahoma is when the heavy snow will arrive. I am confused when looking @ radar because it appears the system is moving fairly quickly and not putting down much precip?

Anyone else know anything or have any predictions?



Oh and im in Stillwater, OK (N. central ok)

 

[Chris Wilburn]

The 1006mb surface low is located near SW OK into NW TX near Childress and the 850mb disturbance/low is located in SW OK at this time. Surface temps. are still fairly warm east of I-35 and even points west of I-35 until you get to say NW OK and SW KS. Surface temps. drop off fairly rapidly in these areas opposed to areas just west of I-35 and east of I-35. There appears to be a cold front running from Wichita to just south of Pratt extending down into NW OK. I think later on this morning as the cold front moves further east into OK along with the 850mb disturbance moving out of SW OK into central/Eastern Ok we will begin to see heavy snow with accumulations in the range of what has been forecasted. It appears that with the track of the 850mb low being a bit further south than earlier forecasted that the area of concern may be from Stillwater to Tulsa and points east instead of SE KS and extreme NE OK that was predicted earlier. These areas will still get their fair share, but I have my eye on the Highway 412 corridor from Stillwater to Siloam Springs, Arkansas as an area to watch. This is also where forecasted higher snowfall amounts are reflected in the new run of the NAM that came out at 00z. Earlier runs of the NAM had the 850mb low further north and had the KS/OK border into SE KS getting hit hard, but that seems like it may have changed now, but who knows. I may be wrong on all of this, but this is what I am forecasting to see if it holds true or not. I would say later on this morning say between 7am-10am things will begin to get interesting and stay that way until near 00z when things should taper off.

 

[Andrew Francis]

reflectivity lightning up nicely all over NW OK and W OK and into TX panhandle.

looking better for a good snowstorm here in Stillwater. I just hope temps can fall in time for the main precip core





EDIT:

forget this storm... LAME

 

[Andrew Herron]

So, um, yeah. Looks like we're going to be under the gun here. Current guidance is showing about 8-12 inches here in Washtenaw and Wayne counties by 7PM EST... And I just got clearance to have the day off!

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Here's a pic I just snapped from outside the student union here at OU on my Camera Phone visibility actually is a bit better than it just was, couldn't see 100 yards in front of you...

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Here in Chicago-land area can be a 4-6 inch event. Snow started light this morning (9 AM) and is picking up to moderate snow ATTM near Calumet City, IL.

To the SE of Chicago, especially into Indiana, snow should be heavier in the 6-12" plus range.

Leaving work early today myself...

 

[John Farley]

Looking at this morning's runs, the RUC puts the heaviest snow just NW of the STL area, NAM right over it, and GFS just to its southeast. So we have the usual disagreement among models. Two main questions for our area are 1) does the snow cut off due to the effects of the gulf coast convection, and if so, for how long? and 2) where does the deformation zone set up? Right now there is some gap between the WAA snow in eastern MO and the deformation zone snow over OK and far SW MO, perhaps owing to the effects of the convection to the south. However, this is starting to show signs of filling in near SGF, so we'll see. The potential is definitely there for heavy snow in the STL area, but whether it happens will depend on the above issues.

Here in Edwardsville it has been snowing since about 11:30, but mostly quite light with an occasional heavier burst. Still not more than a half inch accumulation, probably a little less.

 

[Andrew Francis]

Here in Stillwater, OK - got heavy snow this morning for abour 2 hours and that was it... End result came out to just about 2 inches maybe a little more.

Actually I'm pretty dissapointed with this system. For once the Low trackt far enough south that it didn put a giant precip shield over Kansas unlike every other storm so far this winter. It was setup to hit northern OK and into extreme SE kansas into MO...

The convection to the southeast seemed to destroy the precip we got... Temps didn't fall to freezing until after it had been raining for a while and after they did fall there was a giant dry pouch in the system and it was directly over all of OK it seemed except NW OK.





I give this system a big fat FAIL

 

[Dan Robinson]

STL is a mess right now. Earlier, I checked the traffic camera network and saw a car slide off I-64 live.