Jason Harris
EF5
Just a real messy mass in N. FL but there is high helicity, up to 750/800 on the panhandle as well as 2500 SB CAPE offshore to the SW though on land range looks to stay mainly between 500-1000 based on the WRF expectations for 18-00Z as well as helicity maintaining 300-400 throughout the day at least in the N. section near GA border. One tornado warning currently right to the North of Crawfordville. SPC does have a moderate (40%) expectation for the tornado watch for 2 or more tornadoes. No reports so far but there was 1.75 inch hail near Crawfordville. GR3 also shows some rotation in the tornado-warned area but not that impressive.
*Tornado-warning over now. As day warms maybe some further intensifying and perhaps some storms might form ahead of the general area of convection as it advances southward.
Area forecast discussion summarizes threat as just straight-line winds mainly:
--
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 500MB FLOW OVER THE REGION AROUND
40-50 KTS AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTH STRENGTHENING TO 45 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL CAPE
VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS NW OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH GREATEST
THREAT BEING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS FROM LATE AFT TOWARDS EARLY
EVE.
---
Hey, did anybody notice this in the 1:57 CST update to the convective outlook?
--
LARGE/STRONG SUPERCELL -- WHICH PRODUCED ONE OR MORE APPARENT
TORNADOES IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS -- IS NOW MOVING OFF OF COASTAL ST.
JOHNS CO FL. A TRAILING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE NRN
FL PENINSULA...AND WHILE SURFACE FLOW HAS VEERED IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIOR STORM...SOME SEVERE THREAT REMAINS NEAR AND S OF THE ONGOING
W-E LINE. WHILE THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION
----
Haven't heard about those tornadoes. Anybody on that storm earlier? Still at the office here till 8PM.
*Tornado-warning over now. As day warms maybe some further intensifying and perhaps some storms might form ahead of the general area of convection as it advances southward.
Area forecast discussion summarizes threat as just straight-line winds mainly:
--
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 500MB FLOW OVER THE REGION AROUND
40-50 KTS AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTH STRENGTHENING TO 45 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL CAPE
VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS NW OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH GREATEST
THREAT BEING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS FROM LATE AFT TOWARDS EARLY
EVE.
---
Hey, did anybody notice this in the 1:57 CST update to the convective outlook?
--
LARGE/STRONG SUPERCELL -- WHICH PRODUCED ONE OR MORE APPARENT
TORNADOES IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS -- IS NOW MOVING OFF OF COASTAL ST.
JOHNS CO FL. A TRAILING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE NRN
FL PENINSULA...AND WHILE SURFACE FLOW HAS VEERED IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIOR STORM...SOME SEVERE THREAT REMAINS NEAR AND S OF THE ONGOING
W-E LINE. WHILE THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION
----
Haven't heard about those tornadoes. Anybody on that storm earlier? Still at the office here till 8PM.
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