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1/14/07 FCST: AR / MS / TN / KY

Michael O'Keeffe

Potential is there for a severe weather event over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A shortwave trough should be ejecting from the Rockies as a surface cyclogenesis is to occur. Several days of return flow should be sufficient enough for destabilization.

AND...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL LIKELY BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING
STILL SEEMS TO BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS/ NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE...INTO PARTS OF
KENTUCKY.


I wouldn't be surprised to see a regional outbreak of severe weather across the mentioned areas.

If all this comes together and verifies I will be chasing because I have a three day weekend with nothing planned. For know I'd start in Little Rock and adjust from there.
 
Lucky you although you if I did have a 3 day weekend I wouldnt be able to afford the trip lol. Karen mentioned a couple of days ago of the potential for severe weather. Things still have to come together but the way these storm systems have been evolving as they pass through has been amazing to watch. My target would be Memphis at this point seems to be a good place to start if I dedicated a whole day on this one. Although I dont think the further north you go will help increase the chances of seeing a tornado like we saw last week where the storms that prompted the tor warning in and around the Atlanta metro area were on the NRN end of a line of storms that bowed out east of Atlanta and kept its energy which later produced 3 more tornadoes in NW South Carolina. Then again I could be wrong and everything happens the exact opposite of what I said:). Just have to wait and see if things do come together before I get too excited.
 
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I'm hoping to chase this system. I'll be working in Muscle Shoals, AL on Saturday night, a good point of departure to intercept any Sunday activity in north Mississippi and stay with it going back home to Huntsville.

I'm estimating storm movements being at 40mph upward---any thoughts on this?
 
I'm live here in the Memphis area and will definitely be out in the middle of this if it all comes together. I'm skeptical at this point after comparing the GFS and NAM but like we always say, lets wait for the next few runs. :)

Here's to hopes of severe.

Scott
 
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