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08/15/07 DISC: IN/OH

  • Thread starter Thread starter MatthewCarman
  • Start date Start date

MatthewCarman

Looks like a big severe weather outbreak for Iindiana and Ohio. I think this has been the worst severe weather outbreak we have seen in this area all year.

My question is the SPC was predicting no tornadoes for the area and only a 15% chance of wind/hail. They never even hinted at a big severe outbreak but said there may be severe storms in this area etc. Why were the storms so severe and why did the storms stay severe as far south east as they did? Why was the SPC not forecasting a big severe weather outbreak? I think this warrented a moderate risk outlook.

Also why was the NWS saying this storm is producing nickle sized hail and destructive winds in excess of 80 MPH with a tornado warning but the T-storm warning says penny sized hail and destructive 70 MPH winds is possible? Does this mean that 80+ MPH winds and nickle sized hail were occuring or were likely or expected etc?

Thoughts?
 
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I wouldn't exactly say it was a "big" severe weather outbreak.....its basically one to two storms racking up all the reports. Its a typical summertime MCS situation. Storms formed over my head in Chicago and interacted with a couple of boundaries from earlier convection. I was surprised however to see a really nice HP storm out of that mess. I know Michigan City and Laporte IN are without power tonight due to strong winds. To answer your other question about the winds and hail, I think the 80+ and nickel sized hail were due to that large HP storm which is completely expected outta such a nasty storm. Hardly a MOD to High risk situation.
 
MatthewCarman said:
Looks like a big severe weather outbreak for Iindiana and Ohio. I think this has been the worst severe weather outbreak we have seen in this area all year.
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I haven't seen much in the way of verification for this yet. Local Storm Reports (LSRs) shown the SPC Storm Report page wouldn't support this being a "big severe weather outbreak". Yes, things look(ed) bad on radar, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the 65-80mph winds were felt at the surface. When the boundary layer is stable, common during the night owing to radiational cooling, it's harder for the strongest winds aloft to translate to the surface.

My question is the SPC was predicting no tornadoes for the area and only a 15% chance of wind/hail. They never even hinted at a big severe outbreak but said there may be severe storms in this area etc. Why were the storms so severe and why did the storms stay severe as far south east as they did? Why was the SPC not forecasting a big severe weather outbreak? I think this warrented a moderate risk outlook atleast if not a high risk outlook.

Also why was the NWS saying this storm is producing nickle sized hail and destructive winds in excess of 80 MPH with a tornado warning but the T-storm warning says penny sized hail and destructive 70 MPH winds is possible? Does this mean that 80+ MPH winds and nickle sized hail were occuring or were likely or expected etc?

Thoughts?
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The warnings I saw noted "destructive winds in excess of ** mph". So, just because the warning said "in excess of 70 mph" doesn't necessarily mean that winds were weaker than an "in excess of 80 mph"-warning. FWIW, we (weather weenies, chasers, etc) often have different opinions when it comes to severe weather forecasts, and it's no different for operational forecasts (NWS, SPC, local media, etc). It's easy to say something in hindsight... Next time, feel free to post your forecast in a FCST thread if you think there'll be a severe weather outbreak, particularly one that you feel is being underforecast. Again, though, I'll wait until we see all the reports to decide if this really was a significant severe weather event.
 
I think I might head out to southern Porter County to take a look at that damage in the IN 8 vicinity.

As far as power outages, a good portion of Lake County is without power, including all along I-80 and down to Crown Point. Porter County has outages also.
 
Jeff Snyder said:
Next time, feel free to post your forecast in a FCST thread if you think there'll be a severe weather outbreak, particularly one that you feel is being underforecast. Again, though, I'll wait until we see all the reports to decide if this really was a significant severe weather event.
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There was no way of knowing this was going to happen. I was just saying that I think it warrented a mod risk outlook. A high risk outlook would be overkill now that I think about it. How long does it take the SPC to get all of the reports in?
 
MatthewCarman said:
There was no way of knowing this was going to happen. I was just saying that I think it warrented a mod risk outlook. How long does it take the SPC to get all of the reports in?
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I hate to be an A$$......buuuuuut If there was no way of knowing this was going to happen, how would the SPC know to issue a MOD risk?
 
Daniel Neal said:
I hate to be an A$$......buuuuuut If there was no way of knowing this was going to happen, how would the SPC know to issue a MOD risk?
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I felt this was a big severe weather outbreak and I think it would have recieved a mod risk outlook if the SPC knew the event was going to happen. Since they could not predict it was going to be this bad they could not issue a mod risk outlook. What were the reasons SPC felt this would only be a slight risk day and not a moderate risk day? I am trying to get a better understanding behind the SPC's forecast and why the storms were as bad as they were.
 
How long does it take the SPC to get all of the reports in?
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AFAIK, the SPC Storm Reports page is generated automatically as new LSRs come in. The local NWSFOs issue LSRs that, if properly formatted and for the correct report type (e.g. tornado, severe hail, or severe wind, not flash flood or other type of report), will show up on the SPC Reports page. Sometimes it takes a few hours for NWSFOs to get the majority of the severe reports (relayed by 911 folks, reports submitted after people go out and see the damage, etc), though some offices never release all severe weather reports as/in LSRs. Storm Data is the official severe weather reports entity, though those take a few months to get out.
 
MatthewCarman said:
I felt this was a big severe weather outbreak and I think it would have recieved a mod risk outlook if the SPC knew the event was going to happen. Since they could not predict it was going to be this bad they could not issue a mod risk outlook. What were the reasons SPC felt this would only be a slight risk day and not a moderate risk day? I am trying to get a better understanding behind the SPC's forecast and why the storms were as bad as they were.
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Well I can not speak for them, but today I felt the threat was too conditional. Most of the day the area affected was locked in with cloudiness and had a capping inversion. I was not able to look at any data or models all day because I was working and had baseball. I did notice a definite boundary however as here in CHI it was 79/66 most of the day and 60 miles to the south it was 86/73. I don't bother sharing my forecasts beforehand or looking at anyone elses until after the event because I want to set on one objective. That goes for the SPC as well. I may glance at the graphics but I wont read into detail, I want to try to do that myself. That is why I do not question....hmmm why was this not issued or why can't they upgrade. If you look at an SPC you start basing your forecasts off of theirs and not doing it on your own. Today I would have busted big time, I would have set off for WC IL around PIA in hopes of isolated discrete storms that didn't happen. But at least if something did happen I would have felt awesome because I targetted the area and made my own forecast. Not throwing stones here, but it is something to think about.
 
I am not good with predictions or weather models but I felt we just never got the right conditions in place for storms. Once the heating left for the day I was ready to call it a bust for severe weather.

I was suprised once some late evening storms fired and how they kept building. As our "over the top" local radio station which does wall to wall coverage for anything weather said they didn't remember being on so late. It was 11 PM to 2 AM in our area.
 
Now im far from an expert, and Im still trying to teach myself convective forecasting and meso-analysis methods. I felt the SPC outlooks were fairly appropriate for the day. I thought early in the day perhaps 30% probs could have been justified, but it was one of those days where all the right ingredients were in place, as well as the wrong ones. CAPEs were high, the LLJ was to increase well after peak heating, there were plenty of boundaries and a warm front to interact with them, lots of leftover cloud cover as well as a strong CAP. It's a toss of the dice really. Storms could have easily not have developed IMO.

Think of how many times you've been in a 15%, or even a 45% MOD risk and nothing has happened. Thats how the probability system works. Your neighborhood may be spared but a microburst may hit a mile from you.
 
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IWX is down for computer upgrades through lunch so no new LSR's from them, but I haven't seen anything reported in IEM either. They are sending a team to Argos as the only potential tornado, but if the original report was right then based on radar I would doubt it.
 
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