07/22/2004 FCST: Central/High Plains

SPC has areas in West Kansas and Eastern Colorado in a slight risk today with a 2% of tornadoes. Nothing spectacular by any means, but enough to warrent me to start a FCST thread.

Mention of a brief window for weak tornadoes in the area of upslope from about Pueblo northward to the CO/WY border, then heading east into West and Central Kansas.

The main threat in the area will likely be the heavy rain as a front passes through giving way to the post-frontal upslope. Winds aloft are weak, hence the low risk for severe, however, those same weak winds will enhance heavy rain threat as storms won't move much once they form. Denver HWO/AFD states that as much as 3 inches of rain an hour could possibly fall in areas. Even mention of a possible repeat of the Fort Collins Flood of 1997 has been made in the discussion. Where, who knows at this point, but this could lead to a significant flash flood event in a certian area if things pan out right.
 
Once this hits the Plains, might be worth starting a NOW thread; however, I don't know if anyone really would chase today.

I'm not planning a chase, but will be watching things as long as I am working here in the labs.. be interesting to see how things pan out this afternoon. As you mentioned, we do have odd days when weak tornadoes can form in rather beniegn conditions (I think I spelled that wrong); see Blizzard 2003 with tornado warnings being issued 6 hours before snow began falling. We'll have to wait and see.. front hasn't quite made it to the Metro area just yet, but clouds are building and moving in.
 
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