07/21/05 TALK: Tropical Storm Franklin

The area of interest approaching the Bahamas is really wrapping up in the latest loop. It looks from the flight schedule that the HHs are checking it out again at 18Z. Look out Kennedy Space Center!
 
A ship in the area recently reported an estimate of TS winds. Over the last 4 hours, the satellite image has markedly improved. It certainly has a more TS-like appearance and seems to be developing an eye. I would be very suprised if this isnt named in the next 12-24 hours.


Ben
 
Originally posted by Ben Cotton
A ship in the area recently reported an estimate of TS winds. Over the last 4 hours, the satellite image has markedly improved. It certainly has a more TS-like appearance and seems to be developing an eye. I would be very suprised if this isnt named in the next 12-24 hours.


Ben

The eye is definitly visible now. There has been quite a change even in the past 2-4 hours with this storm. Nice to meet you Franklin :)
 
Well we now officially have TD Six. Winds are currently at 30kts, forecasted to increase to 60kts by early Sunday afternoon. The path forecast is pretty interesting, calling for [what will soon be] Franklin to parallel the Florida coast before coming around and taking a westerly course. The GFS didn't really pick up on this very well, but FWIW, it looks like there'll be an upper-level high over the area, which will aid in development. I'd be suprised if we don't have our next hurricane by mid-week.

Now let's see how it got it wrong...


Ben
 
TD 6 is going to follow the weakeness to its north for the next 12-24 hours, then stall as the NE trough lifts out, leaving it to dangle for a while. A high will build in after that, and my own analysis is that this thing will slowly drift west in a couple days........watch out central Florida!! I guess for those who may want to chase this thing, this could be a good one (especially for beginners), given that it is slow and probably will not become too strong. Plus, the highways in the SE are pretty good, though the higher population would mean more traffic jams on the interstates and state roads, so plan ahead!
 
the storm looks badly sheared from the west and the models are calling for pretty sharp recurve to the east.

I wouldnt get my hopes up for this one.
 
I suppose if anything, this might pose a risk to Bermuda in the next 3 or 4 days. He looks pretty messy right now; I can't see an eye anymore.
 
Nice to see they're keeping their sense of humor:

WTNT41 KNHC 230836
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.

.......

IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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