07/16/07 NOW: SD/MN/IA/WI/IL

[MatthewCarman]

Looks like things could get active today. While not looking like a big event a few tornadoes are possible and a tornado watch has been issued for se SD and s MN and n IA. SPC has 5% chance for a tornado which is nothing inpressive but that could change.

Storms are also possible for ne NE and nw IN with a 5% chance of hail and damaging winds.

Thoughts? Anyone chasing?

 

[Nick Hartley]

Things are looking decent north of the brookings area. Outside kinda working with our High Def truck for work and it's getting darker out by the minute everything seems to be moving northwest to southeast. SPC says 40% chance of two or more torandoes in the area. We'll see what happens in the near future.

 

[Derek Weston]

I'm liking Eastern Iowa right now. Low(er) dewpoint depressions, decent shear, decent helicity... hopefully the earlier convection that pushed through left some outflow boundries to work with. Just need a trigger for discrete convection... needs to develop out ahead of what may become a MCS in N Central Iowa later today..

Content to sit here and see what happens.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Looking off to my east I can see a big area of swelling cumulus with towers. Radar confirms some thunderstorms have formed in east central IA moving east. The tops of these storms look good allthough nothing screams severe to me right now. Have to wait and see if these storms can stay strong and get better organized than we should see a few warnings.

EDIT: New tornado watch for central and eastern IA.

 

[Josh Richardson]

I'm liking Eastern Iowa right now. Low(er) dewpoint depressions, decent shear, decent helicity... hopefully the earlier convection that pushed through left some outflow boundries to work with. Just need a trigger for discrete convection... needs to develop out ahead of what may become a MCS in N Central Iowa later today..

Content to sit here and see what happens.

Im agreeing with you at this point, we have left Mason City to now head out to Eastern IA has CU is forming along the outflow boundary left over from earlier convection. This is looking like the best possibility of discrete development and much better 0-1 KM SRH.

Only problem for us could be whether or not the two cells in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City are the only show of the day. Hoping some more form along this boundary just a bit to the north and west near Waterloo.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Hoping some more form along this boundary just a bit to the north and west near Waterloo.

I wouldn't rule out initiation in this area, maybe even here shortly as per the latest satellite there appears to be some agitated CU in the area of Charles City, guessing you have a visual and can tell if they are truly agitated, but that area appears favorable per Meso analysis page, decent moisture convergence and theta poke in that vicinity, composite indicies are also up in the area.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Those cells went up fast and became severe fast. Now a possible tornado being indicated by radar near Tifton IA. Any chasers on this storm?

 

[Brian Stertz]

HP structured summertime beast in SW Johnson Co. IA...if anybody is chasing it...watch out for the sizeable golfball hailcore...and flooding for sure. The circulation looks as though it weakened some and is wrapped up in rain.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

HP structured summertime beast in SW Johnson Co. IA...if anybody is chasing it...watch out for the sizeable golfball hailcore...and flooding for sure. The circulation looks as though it weakened some and is wrapped up in rain.

Actually it's probably hail up to 3" (or bigger!)...SHAVE just got a report of 3" and pretty good sized tree down couple miles W of the Hwy 1/Hwy 218 in Iowa City

 

[Bill Schintler]

Johnson County, IA storm

HP structured summertime beast in SW Johnson Co. IA...if anybody is chasing it...watch out for the sizeable golfball hailcore...and flooding for sure. The circulation looks as though it weakened some and is wrapped up in rain.

I talked with my dad who lives 4 miles west of Iowa City 20 minutes ago, and he said "the ground was covered with hail larger then golf-ball size" - bill

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Storm near Charles City is Finally getting oranized, it will continue to work into an area with higher Helicity and Shear values, I think if it could move a little more Easterly then SSE, get off the boundary and avoid outflow interferance from pre-existing convection, it could really get organized; if it continues to move SSE into rain cooled air I would favor the more disorganized storm to the East.

EDIT: Cedar Falls switched from Westerly back to Easterly in last hour, they may eventually have to deal with this storm currently in Butler CO. Storm is a good distance from any radar but is appearing to be getting much more organized.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Currently on the tornado warned supercell near Fairfield. Striated HP beast with a green hail core, but doesn't look to go tornadic any time soon. No discernable lowerings or small scale rotation, though the entire base's rotation is very clear.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

En Route to Ft.Madison IA to catch the almost supercellular thunerstorm in Washington county, IA. Looks impressive and getting some nice signatures from it.. All good luck and take care

 

[Josh Richardson]

We have been on the Waterloo storm since its birth just outside of Charles City. Some nice attempts at some organized wall clouds but overall rotation hasnt been phenomenal. The hail has been fantastic, already have had to report baseball sized to softball sized twice.

 

[Bob Schafer]

"4.5 hail actually reported" LOL "Someone actually reported this?!"

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=DMX&issuedby=DMX&product=LSR&format=CI&version=8&glossary=0

edit: this page is changing as new reports get posted, so you'll then need page 9, or 10, or....