07/09/04 FCST: Central and Northern High Plains

  • Thread starter Mike Hollingshead
  • Start date

Mike Hollingshead

Not sure why I am even starting this or if I should be. Should just start one for Sat and/or Sunday. Anyway 'liking' an area around/east of Rapid City. Could see a sculpted LP out there today I think. Some directional shear out there but it's pretty weak and instability could be lacking. Get some se or ese sfc winds and might get something up infront of the Black Hills. I'm out here so I have to like some area....lol. Now I glance at latest eta and Sat and Sun both look pretty good. Maybe nw of PIR Sat and up into w ND Sunday. Never thought I'd need to have a razor with me on this one but it's starting to look that way. Going to need another card for my digital still cam too....I hope anyway. Thoughts on today? Really aren't too many areas to look at today I don't think. I think I need to locate a pretty good sized hill though. Rapid City it is.
Talks in the HWO here in Denver point to possible severe on the plains.. CAPES in and near the foothills are as high as 1300J/kg and as high as 2000J/kg on the plains. Shear is decent to support hail, but I wouldn't go tornado-happy. This all combined with the upslope we love to see around here will likely get things going. Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see a couple SVR warned cells and maybe a tornado-warned cell along a convergence zone, but again, wouldn't hold out for anything more than some hail around here.
Tornado watch just issued NW of Saskatoon. I don't think anyone can predict our weather anymore. Just watch the skies this time of year I guess. Inland cyclone continues to swirl around central Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan.

A quick library tip. When you sign in put the time down for about 30-45 minutes later then it actually is. Then someone else will get kicked off before you do.

Thinking bout drifting west into eastern WY but there are cu that appear somewhat close to here. Distance can be soo goofy out here though. Opting as far north as possible to stay in the "better" mid-level flow.

It would be cool to get a nice LP behind that chimney rock....hmmmmm.
Expanded tornado watch area into NW Alberta:

"More funnel clouds have been reported over central Alberta. Three funnel clouds were reported 5 kilometres south southeast of Vegreville. Another funnel was sighted near Fairview. None of these funnel clouds touched the ground. Further funnel clouds are expected to form in the watch area throughout the afternoon"

Vegreville is SE of Edmonton on the #16 highway.

I'm just watching the skies now in Saskatoon.