06/26/2010 NOW: SD/MN/NE/IA

[Kyle Masters]

Tornado watch box is up, convection starting in eastern SD.

SPC updated their convective outlook, the region now has 15% hatched tornado potential.

Heading out shortly, let the games begin.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Supercell nw of Brookings continues to look pretty tough. If this can turn right some and move away from the cap, it could become quite a beast in SW Minnesota later. Guess we'll see how much additional flare ups will happen later when the wave hits that nice pocket of 4000+ ML CAPES. This could be a spectacular day if the LL inflow/SRH can increase some along/north of I-90. Looks like there are some pop ups west of Yankton SD at this time...

 

[Edward Ballou]

I've been watching the cell (comfortably from home) since Huron - it persists. It's nice to see a storm so close but those pops by Yankton have got me thinking twice. Seems like the show is starting early.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

CINH looks quite organized and pretty strong over ne NE/nw IA atm. Surface/mid level temps makes me think that any action that may take place will do so in a better environment - maybe closer to ne SD/se ND/w cntrl MN. Maybe at 00z or beyond for nw IA/ne NE/sw MN.

Thoughts?

 

[jshields]

there is a nice boundary showing up on radar just north of sioux falls that i think im going to head for. hopefully something will pop and spin up there. btw construction on i-29 in iowa sucks! just drove through 20 miles of one lane traffic

 

[Fred Dearborn]

SPC update at 3pm moved some of the mod risk towards the southwest in favor of the mlcape exc. 4000 J/KG.I think the big stuff,like SPC says,will initiate from the corner of ne NE/nw IA. late this afternoon.Im staying put in Sioux Falls to see what forms to the south.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Iowa - especially with this type of setup - Is notorious for the CAP. I like the area in NW Iowa and SE SD and into Southern MN however.

I am not chasing this (wish I was), but I see the area near Sioux Fallas, SD and north / east of there a great starting point. Numerous severe storms are on-going north of this area.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

There's an old outflow boundary from last night's stuff that goes up the MO river of eastern NE and turns nw just sw of Sioux Falls Radar. It intersects the now stalled boundary north of Sioux Falls to the west around Mitchell or slightly east. Seems that will be the place the show starts, then rides the boundary east, hopefully not into Sioux Falls.

 

[Fred Dearborn]

Headed for the cell west of Sioux Falls, this one may ride the boundary. I suspect it will be tornado warned soon.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Im headed there as well, cant believe how hazy it is out here. Still plenty of time for thing to progress NE before making a right turn.

 

[Marko Korosec]

That Parkston, SD cell just went tornado warned now. A couple of live streams on it.

 

[Greg Blumberg]

MD issued for Nebraska area. Discussion of extreme instability and identification of a weak boundary.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1136.html

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Nice severe cell west of Sioux Falls, SD with rotation on GR3 ... This one is the southernmost cell and appears to be the one to be on for tornadic possibilities.

Good luck to all on it!

 

[Kevin Walters]

Surface winds are nicely backed in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa with upper 70 dp's pooling along a stalled boundary. Any storm that develops/moves along the boundary will have tornadic potential.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

It appears that the "event" will be a highly multicell severe storm / MCS type system at this moment.

The focus for tornadic potential appears to be ahead and / or southern-most cells in this line (near the NW IA and SE SD corner and into SW MN).