Decent CU field now appearing on visible satellite in SE SD. The sudden appearance of it suggests either some UVV in the area or convective temp (below the cap that remains) has been reached locally.
The environment in the four-state area looks pretty good minus the CIN still present. Up to 65 kts of effective deep layer shear exists over SW MN with > 45 kts covering all of SW MN and parts of SE SD and NW IA. Up to 20 kts of 0-1 km bulk shear is present across much of MN, as well. With decent 20-30 kts of Sly flow at 925 mb and ~30 kts of SWly flow at 850 mb, this is allowing for 0-3 km SRH of up to 350 m2/s2 and > 150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH in the area. A tongue of instability with SBCAPE up to 5000 J/kg is providing for a very unstable environment. Lastly, low level convergence near/east of Brookings, SD is providing for some good lift in the area. As soon as this lift and instability slide out under the cap (like the edge area where H7 temps are 12-13 C over the SD-MN border), and with a little more surface heating, initiation should explosively take place.
I'm kind of surprised to not see any MD's or watches yet out for the area.
The environment in the four-state area looks pretty good minus the CIN still present. Up to 65 kts of effective deep layer shear exists over SW MN with > 45 kts covering all of SW MN and parts of SE SD and NW IA. Up to 20 kts of 0-1 km bulk shear is present across much of MN, as well. With decent 20-30 kts of Sly flow at 925 mb and ~30 kts of SWly flow at 850 mb, this is allowing for 0-3 km SRH of up to 350 m2/s2 and > 150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH in the area. A tongue of instability with SBCAPE up to 5000 J/kg is providing for a very unstable environment. Lastly, low level convergence near/east of Brookings, SD is providing for some good lift in the area. As soon as this lift and instability slide out under the cap (like the edge area where H7 temps are 12-13 C over the SD-MN border), and with a little more surface heating, initiation should explosively take place.
I'm kind of surprised to not see any MD's or watches yet out for the area.