06/24/07 FCST: ND / MT

[Rocky Rascovich]

The setup for this day barely justifies me taking a BIG gamble on the area from Alzada MT. to a Bismarck and Dickinson region for what I expect will be a day which someone will be bragging about they're amazing storm intercepts...and hopefully I'll be one of them.

As the surface cyclone gets organized over northeastern WY. lots of high cape/theta E rich air advects into the western sections of my target area. Shear values will be more than adequate for rotating supercells and hopefully will stay discrete long enough to produce before conglomerating into an MCS. I'm also looking closely at the warm front which should be draped along or a little north of the I-94 corridor between Grand Forks to Bismarck, I may target that area instead after looking at models tomorrow AM Capping issues may be a concern but from what a couple others have confirmed, this may likely be overcome out in the western sections of my area in question.

I'll get as far north as I can between now and midnight then get an early start tomorrow. I'll have my laptop but I'm not sure how well it will function, I've had some issues with my wifi... if not, I'll be armed with my trusty noaa wx radio and maybe some direction from a couple of nowcasters. The next day, I'll be focusing in the eastern section of ND and northwestern MN.

Hopefully this will be worth it as next weekends setup will be watched from back in Okla.

Rocky&family
cell: 405-226-2996

 

[Justin Turcotte]

I'll be keeping an eye on eastern ND which is close to home. The set-up doesn't look all that different from last Sunday's event in ND. The NAM advertises an H70 shortwave in the Red River Valley between 21z and 00z. Warm front and potential OFBs from previous evening/night convection to play on. There should be plenty of shear and instability but the cap looks fairly strong in eastern ND. The advertised shortwave may be enough to break it while the larger show evolves out west closer the the surface low. Again, much like last Sunday. Current target is about half way between Fargo and Grand Forks.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Ahh Haa! my laptop is working and I'm currently sitting in front of the Super 8 here in Sturgis. Towering Cu and congestus now over the Black Hills, the biggest negative for today is the cap. Near 17C at the 700mb. level. Convective temps averaging well into the 90's over the area. I think it will be a few hours more before things will start cranking well into MT. near Miles City. Shear profiles look real good so if cells can stay discrete long enough, hopefully I'll see something interesting being I've made this long trek up here.

I'll be looking at so more data before I decide what to do. as of now, I may try to stay on paved roads and wait for the action to get to me on Hwy 85 north of Buffalo on up to Beach, ND. but... I have a feeling that I may have to venture west some in order to see some of these storms before they congeal into a windbag full of hail and rain.

More soon if I can find another Wifi spot.

Rocky&family
cell: 405-226-2996