06/09/04: FORECAST: IL, MI, WI

[David Drummond]

Slight Risk for IL, MI, WI and CO, NE, SD, WY

Any thoughts, and discussions post them here.

 

[mikegeukes]

2/3 of lower Michigan is under a slight risk for severe weather
on Wednesday, also included is northern Illinois and southern
Wisconsin.

Problems, is the wind field is weak, and wind shear is weak,
even with a front moving south, the chances of severe weather
is not the greatest.

Also will cloud cover be a factor, especially with sctd showers
and thunderstorms predicted for the overnight. More cloud
cover, less instability to work with.

High PW values, slow movement of storms could
make this a nice heavy rainfall event, which Michigan
does not need to see after the above normal rainfall
in May. Nothing more annoying than chasing marginally
severe storms if they do happen, putting out a lot of
rainfall.

This was looking at the 12z Model Runs, waiting for the
00z runs.

Mike

 

[rdale]

Soundings look good for some pulse-type severe with winds a primary concern - WBZ way too high for the large hail many NWS offices are worried about.

- Rob

 

[mikegeukes]

Did not chase today, dad had a low sugar spell,
which he occasionally gets, since he is a diabetic,
found out, he hardly ate anything. He is better now.

No now section yet

GENESEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AT 3 PM EDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AND
58 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF FLINT.

* AT 240 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
MONTROSE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLINT...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

0220 PM FUNNEL CLOUD ALMA 43.38N 84.65W
06/09/2004 GRATIOT MI TRAINED SPOTTER
OBSERVER INDICATED ROTATION.

Hail of this size in Michigan is very rare:
0150 PM HAIL 3 E RIVES JUNCTION 42.39N 84.40W
06/09/2004 4.25 INCH JACKSON MI FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
BERRY AND US-127 ROADS.


Mike

 

[rdale]

And when firefighters exaggerate - they REALLY do it well... Hail at that location was 1/2", not softball sized.

 

[Ben Pinette]

Maybe Central Dispatch misheard golfball and reported it as softball? I would hope that's the case. Either that, or none of them have ever seen a softball :?

 

[rdale]

It still wasn't golfball... For some reason they aren't returning our calls!

 

[mikegeukes]

I do not buy the Jackson County report either,
did they measure the circumference instead
of the diameter.

Looking at the DTX and GRR
LSR's all the hail was 3/4 inch except for the
4.25 inch report.

Michigan Hail Reports 4.00 or greater.
1955-2003 minus 2 months of data.

1 ALLEGAN 10/23/1955 1800 Hail 4.00 in.
2 WAYNE 11/13/1955 1920 Hail 4.00 in.
3 MUSKEGON 05/13/1956 0230 Hail 4.00 in.
4 LIVINGSTON 07/26/1978 1500 Hail 4.50 in.
5 MACOMB 07/26/1978 1700 Hail 4.50 in.
6 KALAMAZOO 03/27/1991 1825 Hail 4.50 in.
7 MONROE 03/27/1991 2055 Hail 4.00 in.
8 KENT 08/01/1993 2357 Hail 4.00 in.

Mike

 

[mikegeukes]

One looped I save from today for the Flint storm
[Broken External Image]:http://mgweather.com/rad_dtx_ani_ani.gif

Mike