06/09/04: FORECAST: CO, NE, SD, WY

[David Drummond]

Slight Risk for CO, NE, SD, WY

Thoughts or discussions post here:

 

[Tony Laubach]

Ya know why I like June.. cause everything comes to me..

SPC's SLGT RISK drops into NE Colorado, starting as far west as the Front Range and pitching off to the KS/NE borders. After tonight's deluge in town, I plan to expland myself a bit further north and east to allow myself a shorter trip to Thursday's target area in Nebraska.

I'm not going to stir cauldren's over forecasting as I will end up heading along I-76 tomorrow anyway in preparation for Thursday's chase in NE. My initial target won't be any further than my backyard as storms typically kick off in the mountains and push off into the Plains.

What I'll do is base myself someplace along the I-25 corridor from Denver northward and play the storms as they move off the foothills, allowing myself adjustments for direction. Storms will likely kick off between noon and 2, pushing into chaseable territory an hour or two after they get going out west.

One thing I'm going to make a minor note of.. storms from tonight, including some between Colorado Springs and Limon, will continue to feed outflow westward against the mountains.. today's series started with storms in this same area which pushed outflow westward, kicking off the round which flooded out parts of Denver this evening. Storms redeveloped out there again within the last couple hours and will hopefully leave a boundry it their wake tomorrow for the afternoon storms to feed from.

Overall indications aren't too favorable for tornatic development til you get a ways east. With the moisture in place, and using today as a reference, hail and insanely heavy amounts of rain (and hail) are a pretty sure bet with storms, but tornadoes will be possible further east where shear is better. Also, if a boundry does play into the cards tomorrow, perhaps a weak landspout east of Denver will be possible. It'll be worth a look tomorrow to see what's leftover from tonight's show.

Anywoo, bedtime has arrived.. fortunately I won't have to be any place far, so I can sleep in quite late and still be ready to roll for the show tomorrow. I'll take a look at the models and surface obs when I do finally stir and see what the night has left behind, then will make a more accurate judgement..

Rule of thumb, just follow 'em off the mountains and see which storms move into the best are for further development.. don't have to go too far from that point..

See you in the morning!