06/08/07 FCST: IN/MI/OH/KY

[David Mikulec]

Looks as though things may be shaping up for a weekend of severe activity here in Kentucky. The SPC 4-8 targets our area for a fairly widespread severe event as the trough moves east out of the plains and into the Great Lakes region.

 

[John Peters]

6/8 looks to be more of a propagating MCS type of setup with the fixed SW flow and stalled E-W boundary. Seems like a more typical June severe weather setup for the region based on what I have seen in the past.

 

[beaudodson]

Here in Western KY I am watching Friday for a possible squall line event. If temperatures can get into the 90s with dew points in the 70s (as forecast) then we are going to have a lot of fuel to work with. High wind event with an electrical type storm would be fairly common with that type of set-up. NAM is advertiseing capes of 2000+ across this region. GFS showing a CAPE on Friday Afternoon of 3000+ for Paducah. Freezing level is fairly high - 14-15,000. I would like to see better wind fields though...not very impressive across this area.

Wind fields are impressive across IL/IN - up that way. Certainly keep this region in the ballgame for an impressive event.

Friday
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2007060515/SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f072.gif

Posted a few wind maps maps here
http://www.stormvista.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=1573&st=0&gopid=20425&#entry20425

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well, this is today in the GL area...

SPC has the SLGT pushed pretty much east of MI (or along the border), but I have to disagree with that. With T's near 90F and Td's in the mid to upper 60's, 0-1KM CAPE rises to around 2000J/KG. Directional shear is absent, but speed shear is insane as RUC forecasts 90knts at 500MB over the instability axis (and nice theta-e ridge).

I'm a little worried about convergence touching things off, but if storms do pop, most of SE MI will probably be looking at an early stage squall line event (before things become better established to the east). I expect things to initiate from the Jackson to Lansing area between 15-18Z, sliding eastward and clearing the area by 21Z.

With such strong wind fields, a moderate to high degree of instability, and good DCAPE... I think there is a solid potential for a several high-end wind events should things develop.

 

[Jim Hunt]

This thread has been sitting quietly idle while the big show has been going on. It looks like storms are already forming along the line from Indiana to Arkansas. The tempatures are already warm in the 80's and TDs rising quickly.

MDs are already in places with a watch potential very high for IN,KY,TN,OH areas.

Edit to add: I was about 1 minute late to resurect this thread.