Isaac Pato
EF1
I know that there aren't too many chasers up this way, but I thought I'd start a forecast thread because parameters appear to be lining up for a significant severe event up here. Looking at forecast hodographs/soundings on the most recent model runs, I'm seeing a favorable environment for supercells and tornaodes in the warm sector. Large, clockwise curved hodographs appear on both the NAM and GFS forecast soundings.
Both models show CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG overlaying 60-70kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Low-level shear looks good according to the NAM, 0-1km EHI >2 shifts through southern new england between 18 and 21Z, with severe threat elevated and offshore by 00Z. For NYC/NJ area looks like severe threat will be a bit earlier in the day, with storms moving offshore earlier there.
In addition, recent runs of the SREF have been showing increasing probs for severe paramaters to be in place.
Although the tornado threat is dependent on storm mode, with these parameters in place it deserves watching. Central/Western Mass is all too familiar with significant tornadoes in the past. The big one that comes to mind is the June 9, 1953 Worcester tornado.
Both models show CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG overlaying 60-70kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Low-level shear looks good according to the NAM, 0-1km EHI >2 shifts through southern new england between 18 and 21Z, with severe threat elevated and offshore by 00Z. For NYC/NJ area looks like severe threat will be a bit earlier in the day, with storms moving offshore earlier there.
In addition, recent runs of the SREF have been showing increasing probs for severe paramaters to be in place.
Although the tornado threat is dependent on storm mode, with these parameters in place it deserves watching. Central/Western Mass is all too familiar with significant tornadoes in the past. The big one that comes to mind is the June 9, 1953 Worcester tornado.
