Jason Persoff
EF3
Early this am I was favoring SE CO, but I am increasingly interested in NE CO/KS/NE borders. Morning satellite shows the front as an exceptionally subsident boundary which has been surging southwest, but appears on the past few frames to have slowed and hopefully will stall later today. Upslope flow will be abundant across the Front Range as the day progresses, but moisture is especially low in this region today.
LCLs from the RUC suggest 2000+ ft in SE CO with relatively lower bases expected in the NE PH/NE CO (still >1500 ft). I don't know how accurate the RUC CAPE forecast will be, but a gigantic area of CIN and CAPE hole will be in place around Lamar with only modest CAPE south of there. OTOH, the CAPE, Td's, and moisture into the low levels (including up to 850mb) appear better in the NE PH region, and the meager H5 winds likewise are better north. I like the contour of the dryline (a dry punch) which appears to arc into NE CO late in the day.
Now I'm waiting for the caffeine to kick in and the tea leaves to settle.
Adjusting west to KGLD...
LCLs from the RUC suggest 2000+ ft in SE CO with relatively lower bases expected in the NE PH/NE CO (still >1500 ft). I don't know how accurate the RUC CAPE forecast will be, but a gigantic area of CIN and CAPE hole will be in place around Lamar with only modest CAPE south of there. OTOH, the CAPE, Td's, and moisture into the low levels (including up to 850mb) appear better in the NE PH region, and the meager H5 winds likewise are better north. I like the contour of the dryline (a dry punch) which appears to arc into NE CO late in the day.
Now I'm waiting for the caffeine to kick in and the tea leaves to settle.
Adjusting west to KGLD...
